Posted on 07/30/2004 5:49:31 AM PDT by Born Conservative
Intent on boosting his chances of winning Pennsylvania, Sen. John Kerry leads his presidential campaign into downtown Scranton today on the heels of his stirring party address in Boston.
His 21-state bus tour kicks off with a 2 p.m. rally outside the Lackawanna County Courthouse in a state he almost certainly must win to earn the presidency. After a stop in Harrisburg later today, Mr. Kerry heads to Greensburg on Saturday.
Harry S. Truman, in 1948, was the last Democrat elected to the nation's highest office without winning Pennsylvania. All but two Pennsylvania winners since -- Democrats Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968 and Al Gore in 2000 -- have won the presidency.
The state's must-win status is a key reason Mr. Kerry's campaign is starting its bus tour with three Pennsylvania cities he has yet to visit.
Figuring out why Mr. Kerry picked Scranton to get his bus tour rolling is a little trickier. Some numbers add insight.
First, Scranton is part of a state with 21 electoral votes -- tied for fifth highest -- and home to more than 3.6 million Democrats compared to slightly less than 3.2 million Republicans.
The largest numbers of Democratic voters live in and around the state's two most populous cities -- Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Of the top 10 counties in registered Democratic voters, eight are in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh television markets.
That's why Mr. Kerry and those campaigning for him have spent most of their time there. And why they will spend much more time there in the next three months. (Lots of Republicans live in the suburbs of both cities, which is why President Bush and his surrogates have spent time there, too.)
But the other two counties in the Democratic top 10 are Luzerne, ranking sixth, and Lackawanna, ranking ninth. In other words, the northeast is a base for Mr. Kerry.
"Northeastern Pennsylvania gets the first visit because he wants to solidify a part of the state that's been a strong Democratic area," said Thomas J. Baldino, Ph.D., a political science professor at Wilkes University.
Northeastern Pennsylvania is also a good place to start a tour of battleground states like Ohio and Michigan because it's on the way, Dr. Baldino said. One of the main highways from New England is Interstate 84, which cuts right through here.
Mr. Kerry is also coming to Scranton because local Democrats like to swing, as in their allegiance swings from Democrat to Republican and back depending on the candidate.
They're Democrats, but they're conservative Democrats.
In political parlance, they're Casey Democrats, named after their favored son -- the late Gov. Robert P. Casey Sr., a liberal when it came to issues like health care and the environment, but a conservative on social issues like abortion.
Political consultant James B. McNulty, the former Democratic mayor of Scranton, said campaign insiders and others have told him the northeast is a solid indicator of who will win the vote statewide.
U.S. Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski, D-Nanticoke, who represents Scranton and the 11th Congressional District, said the district historically mirrors the outcome of a presidential election.
Former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, chairman of President Bush's re-election campaign in Northeastern Pennsylvania, thinks Mr. Kerry is visiting because local Democratic voters aren't warming to him.
"Ask yourself: When does he have the most political capital? It's the day after the convention," Mr. Scranton said. "Isn't it curious that he's coming to expend that capital in a 2-to-1 Democratic county? It's like if George Bush went to Texas. What's the point?"
Mr. McNulty calls that slant a "Republican spin," but at least one recent poll bears Mr. Scranton out.
A poll conducted between July 6 and July 11 of 1,577 registered Pennsylvania voters showed Mr. Bush up on Mr. Kerry in the northeast with 46 percent support compared to 44 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. Statewide, the poll had Mr. Kerry up 5 percentage points. A July 17-21 poll of 815 Pennsylvania registered voters had Mr. Kerry up 10 points, but did not break down the vote geographically. One caution on both polls: they didn't screen for likely voters.
Nonetheless, history shows conservative Republicans often run well in the northeast.
Sen. Rick Santorum, first elected in 1994 when he defeated Democrat Harris Wofford, lost Lackawanna and Luzerne counties that year by far less than the margins than the Democratic voter registration edge in both. In his 2000 re-election bid, Mr. Santorum won Luzerne County outright.
Pennsylvania has a lot of swing voters overall. Every eight years, for more than four decades, voters have wanted a governor from a different party than his predecessor.
There hasn't been a Democrat elected to a full six-year term in the U.S. Senate since Joseph S. Clark in 1962. The only Democrat elected since, Mr. Wofford, won a special election in 1991 with the help of, you guessed it, Mr. Casey.
Republican presidential candidates can win the state, too, even though they haven't since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Ronald Reagan and Dwight D. Eisenhower won Pennsylvania twice, Richard Nixon once.
G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said Mr. Kerry's visit is a little bit of all the reasons already mentioned.
"It's a testament to what Pennsylvania means in this election and Scranton in particular," Dr. Madonna said. "It reinforces the importance of Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes. Or as I like to say, 'How many ways can you say 21?'"
Lets hope so.
"I'm Bill Clinton, and I'm reporting for booty"
Is he saluting Shitrack in that picture? I never could spell that Frenchman's name.
"I'm Gary Condit, reporting for a cutie."
"I'm Jesse Jackson, reporting for looty."
"I'm Trafficant, reporting for...er...jailtime."
Lib/dems....crooks, philaderers, and sleazeballs all....
Just damn.
If you want on the list, FReepmail me. This IS a high-volume PING list...
AAAAAAAmen.
What he really meant was: "Reporting for doodie"
I'm Sen. Kennedy, reporting for a snooty."
"I'm Gary Condit, reporting for a cutie."
"I'm Jesse Jackson, reporting for looty."
Man, that lying bastard makes me want to barf. I don't know if I can handle the next 3 months.
Let's review:
1. Kerry milked some self inflicted and minor wounds into enough purple hearts to prematurely leave Vietnam.
2. After leaving he slandered his former comrades by calling them war criminals, providing aid and comfort to the enemy and hurting the US war effort.
3. He admitted to being a war criminal himself.
4. He disavowed his service and threw away his (or someone else's) medals (a slap in the face of the military).
5. Kerry is now running for President as a "war hero" based on his Vietnam experience.
6. The DemonRat party (which hates the military) is embracing the self admitted war criminal and calls Pres Bush a deserter.
7. During previous elections the DemonRat party embraced Bill KKKlinton, a known draft dodger, liar, philanderer, etc., while rejecting as irrelevant the service of 2 legitimate war heroes.
John Kerry is reporting for duty? What a laugh.
This one is from another angle. It's even worse.
He was an officer and on the biggest night of his life can't give a well executed salute? What a LOOSER!
Will he be bringing 30,000 pounds of bananas?
He will be an even bigger LOOSER this November.
It was just after dark when the truck started down
the hill that leads into Scranton Pennsylvania.
Carrying thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Carrying thirty thousand pounds (hit it Big John) of bananas.
He was a young driver,
just out on his second job.
And he was carrying the next day's pasty fruits
for everyone in that coal-scarred city
where children play without despair
in backyard slag-piles and folks manage to eat each day
about thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, just about thirty thousand pounds (scream it again, John) .
He passed a sign that he should have seen,
saying "shift to low gear, a fifty dollar fine my friend."
He was thinking perhaps about the warm-breathed woman
who was waiting at the journey's end.
He started down the two mile drop,
the curving road that wound from the top of the hill.
He was pushing on through the shortening miles that ran down to the depot.
Just a few more miles to go,
then he'd go home and have her ease his long, cramped day away.
and the smell of thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes the smell of thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
He was picking speed as the city spread its twinkling lights below him.
But he paid no heed as the shivering thoughts of the nights
delights went through him.
His foot nudged the brakes to slow him down.
But the pedal floored easy without a sound.
He said "Christ!"
It was funny how he had named the only man who could save him now.
He was trapped inside a dead-end hellslide,
riding on his fear-hunched back
was every one of those yellow green
I'm telling you thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, there were thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
He barely made the sweeping curve that led into the steepest grade.
And he missed the thankful passing bus at ninety miles an hour.
And he said "God, make it a dream!"
as he rode his last ride down.
And he said "God, make it a dream!"
as he rode his last ride down.
And he sideswiped nineteen neat parked cars,
clipped off thirteen telephone poles,
hit two houses, bruised eight trees,
and Blue-Crossed seven people.
it was then he lost his head,
not to mention an arm or two before he stopped.
And he slid for four hundred yards
along the hill that leads into Scranton, Pennsylvania.
All those thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
You know the man who told me about it on the bus,
as it went up the hill out of Scranton, Pennsylvania,
he shrugged his shoulders, he shook his head,
and he said (and this is exactly what he said)
"Boy that sure must've been something.
Just imagine thirty thousand pounds of bananas.
Yes, there were thirty thousand pounds of mashed bananas.
Of bananas. Just bananas. Thirty thousand pounds.
of Bananas. not no driver now. Just bananas!"
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