Electoral College Breakdown 2004, July 28th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 7/28/04

[Dales]

The Democratic National Convention is underway, but it will be a little bit before we get any state polls that would reflect any bounce for Kerry and Edwards reflective of the impact of the events. However, it has been a few weeks since Senator Kerry named Senator Edwards as his running mate, and there have been a number of polls released since then that allow us to get a feel for how the race has changed on the state level since then. With the exception of West Virginia, Maine, Tennessee, Colorado, and Washington, every state that had an Electoral College Breakdown (ECB) rating of "Leaning" or closer has had a polling update in this timeframe (Maine had two polls released since then, but both were conducted prior to Edwards being named).

At the time of Edwards' naming, Kerry had 7 states worth 61 electoral votes in the "Safe" column and 5 states worth 92 electoral votes in the "Strong" column according to the ECB. For President Bush, the numbers were 13 states for 99 electoral votes "Safe", and 5 states for 43 electoral votes "Strong". Today, all of these states have the same designation as before. Given that the national polls have not moved much, it is not surprising that the states with the strongest partisan leanings have not been affected.

The states that were "Leaning Towards Bush" then were Nevada, Missouri, Tennessee, Colorado, and Arizona. Two of those states, Tennessee and Colorado, have not been polled since (unless one counts the erratic Zogby Interactive polls, which have shown Tennessee moving some 21 points towards Kerry during this timeframe). Nevada and Missouri have both moved towards Kerry, with both now residing in the "Tossup" category. Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA show conflicting results for Nevada, with the former showing Bush ahead by 3 and the latter showing Kerry up by four, with both polls being conducted over essentially the same time period. Missouri had four polls released, two showing Kerry slightly ahead, one showing Bush slightly ahead, and one showing it a dead heat. Regardless of which of these polls over these two states are correct, there has been movement in them towards Kerry. On the other hand, Arizona moved markedly towards the President, with three of four recent poll results showing him with a lead of a dozen points.

Every state that was in the "Slight Advantage for Bush" designation has subsequently been polled, and two of them remain in that designation: Arkansas and Florida. The movement out of this category was not uniform, however. The southern states of Virginia and North Carolina, which by conventional wisdom would have been the states where Edwards' appeal would have been strong, moved in Bush's direction. Both are now leaning his way, albeit not convincingly. Still, this gives evidence that Edwards' regional appeal may not be all the Kerry campaign had hoped. On the other hand, Wisconsin may have moved towards Kerry and Edwards. Two out of three recent polls there show him slightly ahead, which has caused his ECB designation to change to reflect that.

Only one "Tossup" state remains a tossup today: Ohio. However, there was some indication that the state has actually moved every so slightly in the President's direction. One of the recent polls showing Kerry ahead there does so by less than it did a few months earlier; American Research Group had him up by 6 in June but just 2 now. Two of the three other polls released in this timeframe show Bush ahead, although one is by a Republican pollster. However, the Columbus Dispatch poll, which is the most reliably accurate Ohio poll, has Bush leading. Still, if there has been movement it is barely measurable.

The other states that were tossups moved towards Kerry, and not just slightly. Oregon and Pennsylvania both jumped all the way over to the "Leaning Towards Kerry" column, due to multiple polls showing leads as high as 8 to 10 points, respectively. New Mexico may also have had such a move, as the single poll which came out for it showed a 7 point Kerry lead; I have left it as just slightly in that direction since there has not been any subsequent confirming poll.

Three states were slightly advantageous for Kerry two weeks ago. West Virginia remains so, not having been polled in the interim. New Hampshire was polled twice with both polls being indicative of a state in this designation, with all of the results (both with and without Nader) showing Kerry up but not by more than a single span of the margin of error; still, that may be an oh-so-slight bit of improvement for the Senator in the Granite state. The other state that was in this category is Michigan, which now rests as "Leaning Towards Kerry" but is one of the two states where I am least certain that my current designation is the correct one. Only one of the last five Michigan polls has Kerry up by more than a single span of the margin of error, and one even has Bush ahead.

It is when we get to the states that had been "Leaning Towards Kerry" at the time of the running mate selection that things become a bit more surprising. Of the five states that were in that designation in early July, only one remains: Washington, which has not had a poll released. Maine did have a pair of polls released, but both were conducted prior to the announcement; both polls showed it a very tight race. But the three other states that had been leaning Kerry's way all had polls showing his lead slipping. Iowa, Minnesota, and New Jersey are now all just slightly in the Kerry ledger. New Jersey is the other state where I am not convinced I have the right designation, but since it and Michigan have roughly the same electoral votes, they probably offset.

Designation	States Added	States Removed	Net Electoral Vote Change
Safely Kerry	None	None	0
Strongly Kerry	None	None	0
Leaning Kerry	PA, OR, MI	ME, IA, MN, NJ	+9
Slightly Kerry	WI, NM, ME, IA, MN, NJ	MI	+34
Tossup	NV, MO	PA, NM, OR	-17
Slightly Bush	None	VA, NC, WI	-38
Leaning Bush	NC, VA	NV, MO, AZ	+2
Strongly Bush	AZ	None	+10
Safely Bush	None	None	0

Taken in aggregate, and given the nature of the race to date, is it any big surprise that 14 states moved, with half going in Kerry's direction and half going in Bush's? Within the states where a distinct lean is showing, there has been essentially no movement even though the number of electoral votes in these designations has grown for each candidate. Kerry had been leading, 200-188 and now is leading 209-200. It is only when one looks at the closest of the close states that one can see that over the past two weeks, the Kerry/Edwards ticket has, in fact, made up some ground. With the slight advantage states added, Bush and Cheney had enjoyed a 259-226 edge, but now they trail 269-233. Kerry has improved in the west and in a few of the more industrial of the Midwestern states. Bush has made up some ground in the more rural Midwestern states, in the northernmost southern states, and in a handful of states that used to find appeal in Rockefeller Republicans.

The current map shows the path to victory for Kerry: hold on to what is currently his and perhaps pick of the few states that remain close but with Bush ahead. The President's path is also relatively straightforward. If he gets more than half of the electoral votes in the states where Kerry has not been able to open a clear advantage, then he will be re-elected. Neither candidate can be overly happy with their current position. Kerry has to be disappointed that when the race had been so even for so long, he has been unable to open up a sizeable margin during the first part of what should be his campaign's honeymoon period. And the President cannot be happy that his defeat, which until even recently most Democrats did not think was going to happen, can be envisioned on the electoral map so easily.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

The article above talks about the recent polls and also touches on all of the battleground states.

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 209, Bush 200	Kerry 269, Bush 233
ECB Classic	Kerry 214, Bush 184	Kerry 299, Bush 217
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 214, Bush 195	Kerry 310, Bush 228
Calculated National Result	Kerry 45.8%, Bush 45.3%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry +6, Bush -5	Kerry -13, Bush -9
ECB Classic	Kerry -28, Unch.	Kerry -4, Bush -5
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry -32, Bush -20	Kerry +45, Bush -35
Calculated National Result	Kerry -0.1%, Bush +0.4%

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	Michigan
	Electoral Votes: 17
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2

Punditry: Strategic Vision has done about 5 polls recently, all as part of their own market research and not commissioned by any party, candidate, or media outlet. They get the (R) designation because their CEO says that they traditionally work with Republicans. Their recent polls have pretty much been right in line with what other pollsters are saying, however. I still am not budging from my rule of thumb-- a state does not change designation due to a partisan poll. Leaning Towards Kerry.

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	F		Pennsylvania
			Electoral Votes: 21
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
			1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
			839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
			1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10

Punditry: Just keep in mind that the LA Times has had some very interesting other numbers this year that have ended up not being validated by any other pollster, but rather contradicted by them. Caveat lector. That said, the recent pattern for Pennsylvania polls is for Kerry to be doing well. Leaning Towards Kerry.

Updated: Included the Strategic Vision poll.

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	New Hampshire
	Electoral Votes: 4
	2000 Result
	Bush 48%
	Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
4/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/26/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	491 LV	4.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
6/9/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +5
			LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
7/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
			600 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2

Punditry: While across the board American Research Group polls this year have been slightly more favorable to Kerry than other polls have been, New Hampshire had been the exception. Now ARG also has Kerry leading in the Granite State, slightly, just like most other pollsters. Slight Advantage for Kerry. Bush is getting beat soundly among independents here. If he can fight back to parity among them, he should carry the state; with the status quo he will be hard pressed to do so.

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	Oregon
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 46.96%
	Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
5/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +4
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
5/10/04	Riley Research	Link	776 LV	3.51%	Bush	44%	Kerry	39%	Bush +5
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
6/1/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8

Punditry: According to ARG, Bush now has a net negative approval rating in Oregon. Kerry has a plus-18 net approval rating. Leaning Towards Kerry.

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	Georgia
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 55%
	Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11
7/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	40%	Bush +11
			801 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	38%	Bush +13

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Bush. The company works generally with Republican candidates, so keep that in mind. However, the results are in line with other polls.

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	F		Wisconsin
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 47.83%
			Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
			500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
			500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
			575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/13/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader an not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6

Punditry: Added in the Strategic Vision poll, and since it is a Republican polling firm showing Kerry slightly ahead, and since the other two recent polls basically are on either side of it, I think it is prudent to slide Wisconsin to Slight Advantage for Kerry

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	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12

Punditry: Two months ago, we had SurveyUSA providing a poll that was... different. At the time, I opined that it was an outlier. SurveyUSA said they did not think so.

Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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	Iowa
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
			614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2

Punditry: The Selzer & Company Iowa Poll is the new addition here, and while it slightly favors Bush it is not enough to swing Iowa away from its current Slight Advantage for Kerry designation. Nader is not a factor, as there is no net change when he is considered. Bush's approval rating among the wider "adults" classification is 1 point higher. Both Republicans and Democrats have already come home, with Kerry doing slightly better among independents. According to this poll, Republicans are somewhat more likely to vote than Democrats. Bush leads among all income groups except those below $30,000. Oddly, Bush leads in metropolitan areas, but Kerry does in smaller cities.

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	F		Nevada
			Electoral Votes: 5
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since 1964, Nevada has gone Republican every Presidential election except for the two victories by Bill Clinton, both of which were by very small margins (margins which were 1/9th the size of the Perot vote). Most of the other elections were comfortable wins for the GOP.

Nevada was leaning Bush in the first 2000 ECB, and this year rates a slight advantage for Bush. Legislatively, the state is split. Two of the three Representatives are Republicans. The two Senate seats are split. The Democrats control the state Assembly while the Republicans control the state Senate. The Republicans hold most executive branch offices. The registration race is close, with Republicans holding a one point advantage (41%-40%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/9/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	23%	Bush +28
10/28/03	Magellan Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	23%	Bush +9
12/3/03	Southwest Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%	Bush +16
2/13/04	SurveyUSA	Link	505 RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	48%	Bush +1
3/17/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	38%	Bush +11
7/22/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
7/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4

Punditry: The Mason-Dixon poll is the newly added one, and suggests that I moved the state too far on the basis of just that single SurveyUSA poll. On the basis of competing polls from two companies I respect, Nevada becomes a true Tossup.

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	F		Ohio
			Electoral Votes: 20
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/19/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	639 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
			639 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/23/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,047 RV	2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	44%	Bush +3

Punditry: Lots of contradictory polling numbers for Ohio right now, with the latest addition being the Gallup entry. This is one of the few states where I have information not posted here, and even that is now contradictory. Until the picture becomes clearer, it only makes sense to call Ohio a Tossup.

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	F		Florida
			Electoral Votes: 27
			2000 Result
			Bush 48.85%
			Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
			1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Insider Advantage	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
			600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	729 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/21/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	47%	Bush +3
			699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4

Punditry: Also taken into account is Rasmussen's two-week tracking result for Florida. With that and the Gallup result, there are now four straight results showing a Slight Advantage for Bush in Florida.

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	Missouri
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 50%
	Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Market Research Institute	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Research2000	Link	802 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
			802 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	636 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
			636 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push

Punditry: Tossup before, and Tossup again. If this seems like a short comment, it is! There simply is not a lot of information given about this Gallup poll-- just the topline numbers.

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	Louisiana
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 53%
	Gore 45%

Background: Louisiana votes for southerners in Presidential elections. George Wallace won here. Carter beat Ford. Clinton beat Dole. And Clinton beat Bush (with big help from Perot). All others since JFK were won by Republicans.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
11/9/03	JPI Polling	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%	Bush +16
3/29/04	DeVille and Associates and Southern Media & Opinion Research	Link	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14
3/?/04	Marketing Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Bush +10
5/25/04	Multi-Quest	Link	400 RV	6%	Bush	48%	Kerry	29%	Bush +19
5/31ish/04	Marketing Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	42%	Bush +6
7/??/04 ("Mid-July")	Marketing Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Kerry	38%	Bush +16

Punditry: I did not move Louisiana from Strong Advantage for Bush after the last Marketing Research poll, wanting to see confirmation first. This is why.

In the Senate poll portion of this, David Vitter leads John Kennedy and Chris John 36-19-18 with 21% undecided. It is going to be tough for Vitter to get over 50% and avoid a run-off, but it is doable.

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
			589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push

Punditry: Slight Advantage for Kerry. I have said before, that I am not going to change the way I approach Strategic Vision polls this election cycle, but I will say that their recent round of polling done not for a Republican candidate or committee or PAC, but just as part of their marketing research, has impressed me in that just about every result has been about what I would expect and has been validated by other polls.

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	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12

Punditry: Two months ago, we had SurveyUSA providing a poll that was... different. At the time, I opined that it was an outlier. SurveyUSA said they did not think so.

Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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	North Carolina
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
7/26/04	SurveyUSA	Link	906 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7

Punditry: North Carolina still Leans Towards Bush, although a majority of Kerry/Edwards voters are "for" the ticket rather than against Bush/Cheney. The Carolinas are the only two states where SurveyUSA has found that to be the case. To tell you how conservative a state North Carolina is, despite the fact that Kerry is getting 19% of conservatives compared to Bush getting just 12% of liberals, and despite Kerry getting 58% of moderates compared to 36% for Bush, the President still leads by 7%.

---

	Kentucky
	Electoral Votes: 8
	2000 Result
	Bush 57%
	Gore 41%

Background: Johnson, Carter (first time) and Clinton (twice) carried the Bluegrass state. Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice) and both Bushes won here. It is very likely that Clinton would not have carried Kentucky either time if not for Perot. In 1992 Clinton won by three points with Perot capturing 13%, and in 1996 Clinton won by 1% with Perot capturing 9%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/23/03	Associated Press	Link	LV	4%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +18
2/4/04	Courier Journal	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +17
2/16/04	Survey USA	Link	LV	3.8%	Bush	57%	Kerry	41%	Bush +16
5/11/04	Bluegrass Poll	Link	811 Adults	3.4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	40%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Garin Hart Yang (D)	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6
6/8/04	Survey USA	Link	669 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	39%	Bush +13
7/26/04	Survey USA	Link	690 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	42%	Bush +10

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Bush, just like before. Bunning still leads Mongiardo by even more, just like before. In Kentucky, Bush actually leads among women by more than he leads among men. Just 44% of Kerry/Edwards voters are for them rather than against the incumbents.

---

	F		New Jersey
			Electoral Votes: 15
			2000 Result
			Gore 56%
			Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2

Punditry: Yet more evidence that Rasmussen is polling virtually a different state than everyone else; his turnout model must be very different than others (especially considering that the Universities are mostly going with straight registered voter polls at this point). All of Rasmussen's results going back three months have Kerry leading by 10 or more points, while every other poll by various companies has it a very tight race, with just one result being outside of the margin of error. Experience shows that when one pollster is consistently off by his lonesome in a state, that pollster has something not quite right. Surprisingly, New Jersey is back to being just a Slight Advantage for Kerry. This poll looks to slightly over-represent independents and under-represent Democrats, so the actual margin among registered voters is probably closer to 6 points (like Quinnipiac found), but given that registered voter polls usually understate Republican standing among actual voters, the topline numbers are probably close to reality at this point.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 45.8%, Bush 45.3%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	WA (11) K50-B41 6/30/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	NV (5) K49-B45 7/23/04	AR (6) B49-K47 7/12/04	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	MI (17) K46-B44*R 7/17/04	ME (4) K46-B45 6/30/04	MO (11) K48-B48 7/22/04	FL (27) B50-K47 7/22/04	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	GA (15) B51-K40*R 7/11/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04	PA (21) K48-B38* 7/21/04	NM (5) K49-B42 7/8/04	OH (20) B47-K44* 7/23/04	-	VA (13) B50-K45 7/8/04	SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04	WY (3)
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	IL (21) K53-B37 6/30/04	OR (7) K50-B42 7/22/04	WI (10) K48-B46 7/15/04	-	-	NC (15) B51-K44 7/26/04	AZ (10) K42-B41 7/18/04	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
NY (31) K51-B29 7/12/04	CA (55) K53-B41 7/25/04	-	NH (4) K48-B46 7/21/04	-	-	-	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
MA (12) K59-B30 7/18/04	-	-	IA (7) K58-B6*R 7/23/04	-	-	-	KY (8) B52-K42 7/26/04	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	MN (10) K48-B47 7/24/04	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	NJ (15) K45-B43* 7/26/04	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B52-K38 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K35 7/??/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
61	92	56	60	36	33	48	53	99
209			129			200

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

[Dales]

I'd like to take a moment to make a personal appeal to people about a non-political thing. This is mainly aimed at parents of kids now, but also it is something for people who are going to have kids to think about for the future.

My son plays some sports. The one coming up is youth football.

I volunteer as the President of the community's football organization.

I have a dedicated board of about 10 or so, and they work their butts off to make the experience the best they can. For their own kids. But also for the kids of the community.

I don't know if any of you have ever been involved with one of these boards, but they can become immensely politicized, personal, and to be blunt, nasty.

I think, no, I know, it is because a lot of good people do not volunteer their time. It is too much on top of everything else. Work all day, chores when you get home, be the taxi driver for all the activities.

I am asking you to think of ways to find a way to be involved in these things in your town, for your kids, for your neighbors' kids. Help coach. Be involved with the board on the sports leagues. Or with the cheerleading organizations. Or with the dance clubs.

There are people out there who want to give your kids a great experience, but they would be able to do even a better job is they had your help. Not money, but time and effort.

And if you can't do that, how about thanking them and going out of your way as a parent of a child involved to not make things even harder?

Just some food for thought.

Hope you enjoyed this week's article, even if I think it is not one of my best.

Regards,

Gerry

[Dales]

Pingaling

[Heff]

Gerry or Dales...not sure which is tyour right name...but I love your site...not a day passes without a stop at your site. Some of your decisions where you place certain votes I don't always agree with but generally I think you are right on. One day soon, when I get some money I will drop a tip in the cup.!! Thanks for your hard work.

[Dales]

Gerry works. Dales works. Dale does not work. :-)

Thanks for the kind words!

[gas_dr]

Brilliant work as usual. Could I please be added to your ping list. I eageraly await each of your updates...

[Heff]

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

That is Dales site...its the best!

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

Dale does not work. :-)

I do too work!!! ;-)

[Dales]

Dale does not work for me! :p

Other than by paying taxes...

[Indy Pendance]

I wish WI would make up it's freaking mind.

[comebacknewt]

I have thought for some time, and still do think, that JFnK has a slight upper hand in the election. His task of convincing voters he is merely "acceptable" seems easier than W's job of winning back some previous supporters who have left him.

That said, he is truly a dreadful candidate. The MSM will do all they can to prop him up, but I trust it is not enough.

W can still win this thing if he gets his team on the same page and runs an aggressive campaign from here on out. He has some ground to make up, but he can do it. With a little luck, he's even got a shot at a big electoral win.

[Dales]

Get Brett to campaign with W.

[Indy Pendance]

Did you know, Mark Chmura refused to go to the WH for the Packers Superbowl win because of clinton?

[Indy Pendance]

If Brett told WI to vote for Bush, I'd bet the margin would be 70-30

[Dales]

I did. It was that plus the fact that some people I have had the pleasure of working with are from Wisconsin that convinced me that it couldn't be that bad a place, Laverne and Shirley notwithstanding...

[rocky88]

NJ going from "leaning Kerry" to "slightly Kerry" is a big deal. Their rat governor McGreevy is involved in a big scandal right now and maybe, just maybe it will pay off. Plus, almost 1/3 of the people killed in the WTC were from NJ.

Thanks for posting your information! It's very good.

[Indy Pendance]

"Laverne and Shirley notwithstanding..."

Stereotypes. Just like Fargo, not everyone is like those folks. Our problem here in WI is the big cities dictate our political outcome, but the majority do not back it. We are slowly working on that. Heck. Gore only won by 5708 with major, documented votor fraud. Dems couldn't hold this state with a fair election.

[COURAGE]

If the election was held today, which would be unconsitutional, Kerry 257EV, Bush 249EV, and 34EV toss up.

[Teplukin]

This is the high water mark of the Democrats. Now is the time to rally behind President Bush as he fights terror abroad.

[Coop]

I have thought for some time, and still do think, that JFnK has a slight upper hand in the election.

No!! Really?!? Gee, you hide it so well. :-D

[Jedi Jake]

Kerry is not winning West Virginia.