I don't believe I've ever watched a fishing show before.......except a few of those big Marlin off the coast of Florida ones......but I may just watch this one.
It features Barney, I'm told. :o)
We need to be mentally prepared for the biased media projections/polling that will transpire beginning late tonight.
Here's what we can expect and here's how we should respond (I posted part of this analysis on last night's DOSE):
. . many have asked me if I think Kerry will experience a post-convention bounce. My answer is an emphatic YES -- the left-leaning news organizations, who hire the pollsters, will 'make it so' (to use a Star Trek turn of phrase).
Prediction: CBSNews/NYTimes and Gallup/USAToday/CNN will take the requisite one night 'flash' polls immediately following Kerry's speech -- these polls will use weighting formulas guaranteed to give Kerry an immediate 8-15 point bounce.
ALL media outlets will then repeat these worthless 'flash' poll results incessantly for at least a week, by which time all of the other pollsters will have conducted their quickie 2-3 day polls. . . and, surprise, surprise, these polls will also find that Kerry has experienced a bounce, probably in the range of 5-8 points.
Should we take these polls seriously? NO! . . . for the reasons stated above and the reasons noted below:
1.) This is shaping up to be a VERY unique election cycle with historical similarities closer to the elections involving Lincoln and Truman than contests involving contemporary incumbents! For this reason, polling benchmarks comparing approval ratings/match-up rankings vis-a-vis specific dates are becoming more and more irrelevant.
2.) Contemporary pollsters/polling methodologies have become increasingly PARTISAN and UNRELIABLE. Why?
PARTISAN:
Contemporary pollsters (virtually all of whom are now affiliated with left-leaning news organizations) are brazenly overweighting their polls to benefit Democrats.
Currently, Democrats benefit from a 'weighted' advantage ranging from +4 (Rasmussen) to +14 (CBSNews/NYTimes).
FYI: It's not surprising that the recent ABCNews/WashingtonPost produced positive data relative to President Bush. WHY? Because INS, the pollster who conducted this poll, FAIRLY weighted the polling sample:
34% Democrat 33% Republican 29% Independents 4% Refused.
UNRELIABLE:
Today's pollsters, including Gallup, are getting response rates WELL BELOW 30% -- unprecedented! [Previously, pollsters have always believed that they needed a response rate ABOVE 50% to produce a representative sample.]
The problems inherent with low response rates are worsened by a.) the prevalent use of 2-3 day 'quickie' polls -- even the left-leaning Pew Research group has indicated that a pollster must poll over 5 days to produce data that's even remotely reliable, and b.) the use of sample/subset sizes well below 1,000 respondents -- producing margins of error that render results virtually meaningless!!
I could go on and on and on!!
BOTTOMLINE:
Yes, this is going to be a tough election. As I've indicated before, the President is running against the ENTIRE media-education-entertainment establishment -- a daunting task!!! TO WIN, HE AND WE MUST WORK HARDER AND SMARTER THAN OUR OPPONENTS -- AND WE MUST IGNORE BIASED POLLING DATA THAT IS BEING PRODUCED PRIMARILY TO MANIPULATE AND DEMORALIZE US (THE PRESIDENT'S BASE)!!!!
A glimpse of Dubya!