Iran 'Can Create' N-Bomb.

Iran is just 'months away' from having the capability to enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb, Western diplomatic sources said yesterday. Through diplomatic manoeuvring, Teheran had bought time to complete its research on constructing a centrifuge system to produce highly enriched uranium, the sources told The Times, London.

The Iranians had clearly chosen that track for developing bomb-grade material over creating plutonium from its nuclear reactor facility at Bushehr, they said. 'Iran appears to be further advanced in acquiring the relevant nuclear technology than we had initially thought,' said one British official. Britain, France and Germany, the three European countries that have sought to defuse the Iranian nuclear threat through negotiation, are now seeking an urgent meeting with the regime in Teheran. The situation was 'grave', said an official.

Teheran has given the impression of conceding to diplomatic pressure by accepting tougher verification controls by the IAEA. But actually they have just continued with the research work and now they are only a few months away from completing the programme,' one source said.

Related article.......

EU Trio Plan High-Level Nuclear Talks with Iran

Reuters - World News
Jul 27, 2004

LONDON/VIENNA - Britain, Germany and France will pursue talks with Iran on its controversial nuclear programme and a high-level meeting in Europe is pencilled in for this week, Western diplomats said on Tuesday.

Despite reports that Iran is close to getting the materials for a nuclear bomb, European sources said the trio was committed to resuming negotiations to achieve their aim of stopping Iran from getting atomic weapons. “Discussions are ongoing, we still firmly believe that this is the right way to achieve our goal,” said a spokesman for the Foreign Office in London, who declined to give further details.

That chimed with comments from Paris earlier this month that it favoured dialogue with the Islamic Republic. Berlin agreed. “The talks continue on the basis of our well-known position,” said a German government source, declining to comment on a date or venue for a meeting.

Several Western sources said a meeting of senior officials from Iran and the three EU countries was planned, but not confirmed, for Thursday in a European city, most likely Paris.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_7344.shtml

I'm afraid it won't be so simple as there are several differences between Osiraq(81) & Bushehr-

1.The element of surprise is all but nonexsistent-Osiraq was a bolt from the blue.The Iranians have been expecting a strike since 1997&have heavily built up defenses around the sites ,supposedly with the formidable Russian S-300 longrange SAMs(cousins of the Patriot) & shorter range Chinese missiles.

2.Overflight is a big big worry-Osiraq involved only the Saudis & Jordanians (who didn't have a proper airforce then).Now the routes will probably be over Syria,Saudi Arabia or Turkey-the first 2 have nearly flipped their lids while Israeli -Turkish have been going down faster than the US-French ties.A unique option would be to hit from South India(which is now Israel's largest buyer).But the Iranians have smelled through it & are cozying up to the Pakis-besides India is reliant on Iranian oil.Moreover I don't think India could withstand a backlash against its expats(over 5 million) in the Gulf & domestic Muslim population.

3. A crucial lesson that thr Iranians learned from Osiraq was to disperse its nuclear sights-many of them underground.Any Israeli strike would hence include a triumvirate of fighter jets,sub launched Popeye-Turbo cruise missiles & special forces-which would hard to coordinate& would turn out to be a bloodbath especially for the Special Forces & besides the Iranians are not pussycats like their Arab pals.

4.There is a high risk of escalation viz a viz Syria,Hezbollah & probably the Palestinians.The Europeans,Russians &probably even the rest of Asia may end up condeming the Israelis.IF my memory serves me right the US also condemned Israel's strike on the Osiraq & put a short embargo on sales of F-16s(but those were admittedly different times as Saddam was the saviour of modern civilisation then ).

The only viable option would be for US forces to launch air & missile strikes along with the Israelis,sharing the responsibility-but given elections are around the corner,I don't think Bush would take the risk ,unless seriously provoked which the Iranians would probably avoid.

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