Jeb Bush to limit GOP convention role (he plan to return to private life in 2007)

Proper credentials for the presidency [includes] . . . attainment of national office within about a dozen years of attaining the governorship.

I agree that a strong reelection as governor, preferrably of a large state (Arkansas being an exception) is a major qualification, however I don't necessarily agree with the second point. Neither Bush 43, nor Clinton, Reagan and Carter held a federal office before moving into 1600 Penn Ave.

"National office" means the presidency or the vice presidency.
I wish I could find the posting from some years back - probably 2000 - to the effect that nobody has been elected president who didn't at least make it to VP - and usually to the presidency itself - within either 12 or 14 years of reaching statewide (governor or senator) office. Essentially, people reach a level where they can be considered for president - and either attain national office within a dozen years, or fade from the picture
According to that theory, as well as the executive experience theory, John Kerry (20 years a senator, never an executive above the level of Navy Lieutenant) should not win against a sitting president with no primary opposition (Carter, GHWB), no parasitic opposition in the general election (GHWB, and to an extent Carter), and no fingerprints on a catastrophe of Great Depression (Hoover) or Vietnam (Johnson) proportions.
Which is why I think that when push comes to shove the aparent polling strength of John Kerry will dissipate. I also doubt that Kerry's standing will get a big bounce out of the convention, and I suspect that his polls will seriously take a hit when his record of admant opposition to "Right Wing Cold Warriors" is contrasted with the legacy of his greatest adversary, President Ronald Reagan of blessed memory. In film he exhorted us to "win one for the Gipper:" in real life "the Gipper" just may win one more for us.

Why must a candidate have big-time name recognition four years before his nominating convention? That's asinine.

I stipulated above that GWB didn't look like obvious presidential timber in 1996.
My point is that while there are 50 states there are only 50, maybe a few more, governors who are fresh enough to be possible presidential timber. And a major fraction of them are Democrats. Of the remainder, how many are conservative enough to be considered? How many are two-termers or shining-star first-termers?
One such is Jeb Bush. There is not always anyone as good as that on the bench, and there may or may not be in '08 who is not named Bush. Do we then prefer a mediocrity who will lose?

The Vice-Presidency is not really the Presidential launching pad that many pundits think it is. Only 2 sitting VP's have been elected President since the passage of Amendment XII: George HW Bush in 1988 and Martin Van Buren in 1836 (they both lost their reelection bids). Breckinridge (1860), Nixon (1960), Humphrey (1968) and Gore (2000) all tried and lost. Former VP's haven't done all that well either. Mondale lost in 1984, and Nixon narrowly beat Humphrey in 1968. It should be noted that Gore did win the popular vote, however he, along with Bush Sr and Van Buren, served under rather popular Presidents and ran in what seemed to be good times.

VP's who ascend to the Presidency haven't done all that well either. John Tyler, Millard Filmore, Andrew Johnson, James Garfield and Gerald Ford were not reelected. Lyndon Johnson became President only a year before the election (one reason he won is that the electorate didn't want three different Presidents in 15 months); he didn;t even bother trying again in 1968.

That leaves Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge and Harry Truman as the only Vice-Presidents since Amendment XII who were successful Presidents. Richard Nixon would also be on this list if it weren't for the Watergate scandal.

Of the remainder, how many are conservative enough to be considered? How many are two-termers or shining-star first-termers?

Half a dozen at least, and we only need one.

Benson, Pawlenty, Sanford, Owens (marital failure), Carcieri, Allen (ex-gov VA), Rounds, Huckabee (eh), and of course Jeb. Benson and Sanford are probably the most likely to run and win the nomination.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.