This is scarier than it looks if you factor in how close Florida, Ohio and Nevada are. tere are no Kerry states this close.
But we are approaching the low water mark and I think the tide will turn shortly.
If the traders' probabilities are correct, then the probability of a Bush win is 43.5% His expected value of electoral votes is 265.7 (with a standard deviation of 35.0).
No, you're way off here: Bush, depending on the poll, is within 2-3 in Michigan and Pennsylvania; LEADS in most polls in Wisconsin; LEADS in a new poll in Iowa (and barely trails in a second); and has a 5-point gap in FL according to one recent poll. Moreover, Bush was VERY close in the last Oregon poll.
Overally, Kerry has to find some way to hold MI, PA, MN, IO, WI, NM, OR, and NJ and still be able to take OH (ain't gonna happen) and FL (ditto).