When everything is said and done, a few facts remain and are without dispute.
1. Over 700 witnesses were interviewed. Over 100 of these witnesses, WITHOUT TALKING TOO EACH OTHER OR HEARING EACH OTHER'S TESTIMONY, gave investigators almost identical descriptions of a surface to air missle launch.
2. The NTSB/CIA "zoom-climb" theory championed by the government is physically impossible. This was done to match the equally impossible "exploding empty center fuel tank". One thing that does NOT change is the law of physics.
A 747 with a missing nose section will stall in a few seconds as the center of gravity changes, the tail drops quickly and the wings stall.
What the government claims is physically impossible and they know it.
3. JP-4 (Jet fuel used by airlines) fuel/fumes will not ignite until it reaches 175 degrees+. The tempurature of the fuel in TWA800 wold have barely reached 100 degrees. Tests of other 747s show that the fuel in the CFT just does not get hot enough to ignite with a spark. Besides, once the airplane left the ground, the skin, and fuel tank, would have immediately begun cooling down.
4. Did I say spark? Boeing Engineers have found NO PLAUSIBLE SOURCE for a high energy spark to get shorted onto the fuel monitor in the CFT.
I know it is only my opinion, but the four reasons above are enough for me to forever disbelieve the government's explaination of what happened to TWA800.
1. While over 700 witnesses were interviewed, almost none of their descriptions were identical and the differences were significant. More importantly, almost none accurately described something resembling a surface to air missile launch. Many described a flare, but differences between a flare launch and a SAM launch are too numerous to list.
2. The "zoom-climb" theory as described by the NTSB is not physically impossible. The NTSB calculates the aircraft climbed about 1200 feet in 15 seconds after the forward fuselage departed the aircraft. Unless you believe the wings immediately stalled after the explosion, you must agree that they were creating lift for some period after the explosion. A climb rate of 4800fpm is easily within the capability of a 747. Even one with its forward nose section missing experiencing a dramatic pitch-up due to a massive shift of CG.
3. According to Boeing, the JP-4 fuel vapors in TWA 800 center wing tank would be explosive at about 113F. They estimate the temperature of those fumes at the time of the explosion was 130-140F. To quote them... "well within the envelope to be considered flammable."
4. Finally, an undisputed fact. That puts you at 25%.