"It won't translate immediately to significant votes, but it will start some very important and long overdue conversations."
It doesn't have to -- if he goes from say, 10% to 13-14% of the black vote, it's HUGE. And then there are, as you say, the long term effects of those "long overdue conversations"...
Yes I understand that. That is why I said "significant". Frankly, I doubt he will accomplish that in this election. As I said before the greatest possible in-road Republicans have with the AA community is that they are very pragmatic. Republicans tend to be more conservative, and therefore more pragmatic.
However the AA community is very conspiratorial. That is understandable if you look at their history. If you remove the idea that the damage leftist policy has done in their community was deliberate, you would have to admit that until 30 years ago our society was hostile to them. They are always looking for Bull Connor and the KKK. Who can blame them. Republicans, fair or not, have been tagged with that label.
That is pretty much the entire basis of their loyalty to the Democrats... they are not Republicans. It simply doesn't matter what Republicans do, they are seen as racists. Any evidence to the contrary will be seen as an an aberration. It is simple marketing. Once a popular perception takes hold, it cannot be removed, it can only be cast in a new light. That will take years.
The most effective short term tactic to wrest this voting block from the left would be to attack the left from within the democrat party. Imagine the possibilities of a democrat conservative attacking the left. He couldn't be a racist, or for the rich, he is a democrat! Because I have a news flash for you, the AA community hates the left too!
And is it so hard to imagine a conservative running as a democrat? Because I have some more news for you. The same questions Bush asked the AA community about the problems of giving their loyalty to a single party applies to conservatives as well. Conservatives are the AAs of the Republican party.