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Posted on Thu, Jul. 22, 2004 |   |
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Missourians split on Kerry, Bush Poll shows race within error margin The Kansas City Star
Missouri, considered the best presidential bellwether state in the nation, is torn between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, a new poll shows. With just more than three months to go before the November election, the statewide survey found Kerry leading Bush 46 percent to 44 percent. But the poll's 4-point margin of error suggests the race remains a virtual tie. Conducted for The Kansas City Star and KMBC-TV by Market Research Institute of Mission, the poll found that just 1 percent of respondents favored third-party contender Ralph Nader. Nine percent were undecided. “You're looking at almost a dead heat,” said Stephen Caliendo, a political scientist at Avila University in Kansas City. “I think that Missouri is probably very similar at this point in time to other swing states, in that it is so closely divided.” Caliendo said he was surprised that only 9 percent of respondents were undecided. That figure, he said, was far lower than at this point in other elections. “A lot of folks appear to be saying they've got their minds made up early,” he said. “I'm not sure when the last time was that we've seen that.” Conducted July 13 through Tuesday, the poll surveyed 600 Missourians. Asked their party affiliations, 36 percent said they were Democrats, 32 percent said they were Republicans while 28 percent identified themselves as independents. Of the remaining 4 percent, half said they were affiliated with another party while the remaining 2 percent said they didn't know their party affiliation. The survey might slightly under-represent the number of Republicans, considering the party affiliations of those who voted in the 2000 presidential election. An MSNBC exit poll of Missouri that year determined that 39 percent of the state's voters were Democrats, 38 percent were Republican and 23 percent were independent. Those figures were roughly similar to another 2000 exit poll that Voter News Service conducted for The Associated Press. Asked about which candidate would do a better job of handling a series of issues, Missourians picked Kerry on protecting the middle class, improving health care, keeping America prosperous, improving education, holding down federal spending, strengthening Social Security and creating jobs. Bush scored higher when it came to “sharing your values,” holding the line on taxes, safeguarding the United States from terrorists and handling the situation in Iraq. Several of the issues — keeping the nation prosperous, sharing your values and holding down federal spending — were decided by a point or two, which suggested that neither candidate held a clear lead. Poll respondents named different reasons for backing Bush and Kerry. Gary Cramer, a retired truck driver from Cabool, Mo., said the senator from Massachusetts was the lesser of two evils. “I'm coming down anti-Bush,” he said. “I don't like Bush's economic policies. In fact, I don't like any of his policies at all. I don't like the way he's handling the war in Iraq or any of it.” Bill Ainsworth, a disabled veteran from St. Louis, said the war with Iraq had pushed him toward Kerry. “I'm tired of going nowhere except the war,” Ainsworth said. “We should be making friends in the world, not enemies. It seems like a lot of lives could have been saved and a lot of good could've been done with the money.” But two other Missourians said they were sticking with Bush. “He's got the experience,” said James Adams, a retired international consultant from Forsyth. “You don't change horses in the middle of a stream. We need to get out of Iraq, and he has plans for doing that.” Larry Giovanni, an SBC Communications manager from St. Louis, said he'll vote for Bush even though he didn't think the president had been particularly effective. “I certainly don't cherish the thought of Mr. Kerry running our country for four years,” Giovanni said. “I think he's not in the mainstream at all where most Americans are.” Spokesmen for the two campaigns said they were pleased with the results. “I think it's very clear that John Kerry's vision for an America that's stronger at home and respected around the world is catching on in Missouri,” said Michael Golden, Kerry's Missouri communications director. The spokesman for Bush, Danny Diaz, said the Bush team had always thought Missouri would be hotly contested. He pointed out that this week the president and Vice President Dick Cheney had been campaigning in the state. “This is a Republican state,” Diaz said. “We expect to carry its 11 electoral votes. We will not be outworked in Missouri.” For months, Missouri has been the focus of intense campaign attention. Kerry and Bush have visited the state numerous times, and Kansas City and St. Louis rank as two of the top targets for television advertising by both camps. The state has voted for the presidential winner in every election since 1900 except one. In 1956, Missourians picked Adlai Stevenson over incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower. No other state has been that accurate. The survey also asked respondents about Cheney and Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. Cheney was viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent, while 20 percent had no opinion. Edwards was seen favorably by 51 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent, while 29 percent said they did not know. Looking back at the disputed 2000 presidential election, 49 percent of Missouri respondents said the election had been correctly decided while 43 percent said the election had not been. Nine percent were undecided. Asked to name the most serious international problem facing the country, 34 percent said terrorism, 26 percent said Iraq and 20 percent said the world economy and jobs. On national issues, 31 percent cited health care as the most serious concern and 23 percent said the national economy and jobs. Eleven percent said education was the top issue, and another 11 percent identified homeland security. Other questions: • Asked which best described how they feel about the direction of the country, 45 percent said “worried,” 32 percent said “optimistic,” 12 percent said “angry” and 8 percent said “satisfied.” Three percent said they were unsure. • Asked if their family was better off financially now or a year ago, 47 percent said the situation was the same, while 26 percent said they were better off and an identical 26 percent said they were worse off. Two percent were unsure. • 60 percent said the economy was either very or fairly good while 39 percent said it was fairly or very bad. Two percent were unsure. To reach Steve Kraske, political correspondent, call (816) 234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com. |
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