Anyone who uses Bodansky as an information source is going to get snakebit far more often than not. In the absence of facts, he makes stuff up--it got him bounced from the staff of Jane's Defense Weekly in the 1980s.
Intelligence work is at least half guess work and connecting the dots. What you described about Bodansky is why the analysts don't go out on a limb connecting dots and what has gotten us in trouble. No one should expect them to be correct all the time or even 75% of the time.
Also, Bodansky was the chief counter-terrorism expert for Congress in the 90's. He TOLD Congress that something was going to happen in the heartland and it would involve Muslim extremists using lily whites. He had even more detail than that but my book is out on loan to a friend and I can't remember more of what he said, but I can tell you, it proved to be true.