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To: Remember_Salamis
On the diplomatic front, I tend to agree. As long as our strategy is to improve relations with India, and keep Pakistan as an ally, it certainly is good. Of course, the big worry is that Musharraf will be assassinated and the Islamo-terrorists take over.

I am not yet convinced of the soundness of our economic approach to South Asia. We are in a radically bad trade situation with India. I believe their enormous profits are the reason that the Indians are engaging with us rather than any sudden finding of common values. Our trade deficit with India is spiralling out of control; it was $8 billion last year, and if it continues at the pace it has gone through the first five months of the year, it will reach $10 billion this year, a 25% increase. While that doesn't equal even one month of China's recent mammoth trade surpluses with us -- at the rate that it is ballooning, we will be more than $130 billion in the red with the red monster -- we just don't need another $10 billion (and growing) deficit on top of that.

Yes, by playing economic patsy for India and having IndiaPac purchase our congress wholesale, we can make them feel pretty daggone good about themselves, but I cannot rate it as an intelligent on our part.

If we just sent them a check for $5 billion each year, it would cost us far less -- and we would have more of a taxbase of taxpayers working at jobs that instead have been outsourced to India. And I personally would just as soon as have all of our accounting work done by U.S. CPAs rather than all of our personal tax information headed off to the subcontinent; all of our bank and securities work done by folks in the U.S.; and all of our medical records just as soon kept here. But economically, it does make a lot more sense for any one company to minimize its expenses and maximize its profits; it's just that when we ship those dollars overseas, they don't come back just as quickly; they instead turn into a huge debt which we have to service into perpetuity. And if we start to inflate the currency, interest rates will follow, making that servicing even more onerous.

61 posted on 07/17/2004 6:07:22 PM PDT by snowsislander
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To: snowsislander
1. US-Indian relations were progressing smoothly until the left-wing Congress pulled off one of the biggest upsets in global electoral history. There was a chance that the BJP would eventually send troops to Iraq as well.

2. A trade deficit with India is not necessarily a bad thing either. With China it's more of an issue because their currency is pegged to the dollar, meaning that currency fluctuation will NEVER lessen the trade balance with China. With India, on the other hand, as they grow, the trade deficit will go down. When a nation receives foreign investment (not necessarily FDI) or foreigners buy their currency, the overall value of their currency will go up. As more and more investors pour investment dollars into India, this will happen. In China, the world's largest recipient of FDI, this doesn't happen. In fact, it's making it's banks highly unstable with a currency that may be undervalued by 40%!

When China's economy crashes (the PRC is trying to prepare for a "soft landing" as we speak), a lot of that money will shift over to India where it should be going in the first place. India is a free society (although highly protectionist) with high literacy and education rates and where most politicians and business leaders speak "fluent" english.
62 posted on 07/17/2004 6:21:38 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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