The Democrats should be careful what they wish for. They should fear a Condi Rice as VP. True, Condi Rice may cause problems with Bush's conservative base which won't like her socially liberal beliefs, but she'd likely more than make up for it among women and blacks, two demographic groups that Democrats must win big among.
Why do I think Bush would pick Condi Rice? The same reason he picked Cheney -- she is close to him and he trusts her.
I agree that if cheney goes it will be a Bush/Rice ticket for 2004. Not only for the reason that you stated, but also it would take the dem's thunder... they have been trying for years to get both a black and woman on the ticket that is electable. So if we can't have cheney.. I would love to see Rice do 4 years as veep and be ready to challenge Hillary for the Presidency in 2008.