If people all around you vilify you, and you say nothing, most observers will take that to be an admission of guilt. This election will be a referendum on the media, more than it will be one on John Kerry or even Goerge Bush.
True, but do you remember August 2002? Bush was bashed continually on Iraq. (He had floated a trial balloon about invading Iraq). He took a vacation in Crawford. His ratings dropped. FReepers were having hysterics.
Come Sept: He got a UN resolution on Iraq. He got Congressional authorization on Iraq. His ratings soared. Republicans got a surprise election result in 2002.
I predict Pres. Bush to be more active in Aug 2004, but still to take a vacation. He will come out swinging in Sept 2004, pour it on in October with forceful speeches and stunning debate victories and then win by 5-10% in the national election. EV's will be 300-350.
Timing is everything. You must present your message when people are listening. They aren't listening in the summer. They will listen in October, before the election.