I must say that I am not anywhere near as optimistic as I once was. Bush could certainly lose this november.
Yes, it's possible but not likely. remember, Republicans are much more likely to go to the polls than Democrats.
Look at it this way: what states will Kerry get that Gore did not? Ohio? No way. Florida? Nope, Bush is up there. WVA? Bush is up there. AR? TN? No and nope. Name one state Kerry will get that Gore did not.
There is a better chance of a Bush landslide than of a Bush defeat. If Bush is ahead the last week, a lot of the independents will jump on his side, because they want to vote for a winner. Can you say 325-350 electoral votes?