Posted on 07/14/2004 6:42:29 PM PDT by Dales
Fitting that your weekly hits right after I finish reading about Kerry cutting back his ads in AZ, MO and the South. [giggle]
Is it too early to get worried? I think I am.
And the winner is?
Not too bad going into the Democrat convention.
Weekly ping, and thanks as always to neets for working the ping list, KQQL, Anti-Guv, ambrose, Black Razor, Tom Ewall, and I am sure I am forgetting a pinger-to-polls or proofreader or two for all you do to help me as well! Thank you.
When I looked at the most recent , they had a sample of 37% R, 38% D and 24% I compared to 41% R, 34% D, and 24% I in June. Which is more realistic?
Not only is it too early to be worried, but what in the world are you worried about?
And people put way too much faith in Rasmussen. He was off in 2000, off in 2002, and probably off again.
The more recent of the two.
As an incumbent I continue to insist time is not our our (GWB) side - The longer Kerry stays even to in the lead....the more likely he wins in NOV -
More polls showing OH staying on our side which is good news, also good in NH, ME, VA, AZ, and the Carolinas, and bad news coming out of FL, PA, MI, and other battlegrounds. As I said in my other post though, methodology alone counted for 8 of the 10 pt switch in the SUSA FL poll.
Also, Drudge is reporting Kerry is semi-pulling out advertising $$ in MO, AZ, and the South. That could mean MO is more than Slight Advantage to Bush.
I know reelection campaigns are seldom close at the end, but for the life of me I just can't imagine any of these states moving radically in the direction of one candidate or the other. As much as history dictates one candidate or the other should win comfortably, I wonder if this won't be a nailbiter...
Lots of nervous nellies around now. I guess I understand it, even if I don't share their apprehension.
Have you been able to analyze how much Kerry got a bump in each swing state due to Edwards vs. increased ads buy Kerry vs. other factors like Iraq? I know it is hard to tell, but you probably have a better feel than others.
I still think it will break relatively open in the end, the way the Reagan/Carter race did. That one looked like a real nail-biter too.
In that case, its more likely that the situation is relatively calm in FL with Kerry leading slightly in most polls, but within the MOE. This is a state Kerry has no business winning and hopefully Bush gets more than 34% of the Hispanic vote SUSA is giving him.
This seems to be compilation of a number of polls. I guess I am worried about the state of the nation if Kerry pulls off a win. It would seem to me that there has never been a clearer choice in how we want this country to be than in this election. Both candidates and veeps represent stark differences. Last election, the dems had lieberman and that sort of blurred things. This time it is so clear to me, if Kerry wins, the downhill trek of this country is going to go rapidly. That is why I worry.
There has been way too few polls to come up with any meaningful answer to that. I'd need a handful of polls per state, and I doubt we will get that.
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