Electoral College Breakdown 2004, July 14th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 7/14/04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

24 States

Throughout the months of May and June, the Rasmussen daily Presidential tracking poll showed a remarkably stable race. Neither candidate ever went ahead by very much, and always came right back to the other. The race has been a deadlock, as day after day of the tracking poll showed. In some quarters, the stability of these polling numbers became a bit of a running gag, with Mickey Kaus quipping more than once, "nothing moves Rasmussen's robots".

John F. Kerry had a few more better days in May according to the tracking poll. George W. Bush had a 3 point lead just once to Kerry's three days, and Kerry was the only candidate to muster a 4 point lead. Kerry had seven days with a two-point lead, to just one for the President. The mean (average) result during the month was Kerry 45.3%, Bush 44.7%.

Starting with the May data, Rasmussen released a number of individual state polls, utilizing data culled from the 15,000 surveys conducted monthly for the daily tracking poll. Using a scoring method similar to the one I use for the Electoral College Breakdown, states were slated into different categories. If the result for the state had a gap between the candidates more than a single span of the margin of error, a candidate was credited with those electoral votes. After the release of 22 state polls for data collected in May, Rasmussen had the race as Kerry 227 electoral votes, and Bush 188 (a lead of thirty-nine electoral votes; electoral votes in certain obvious states were assigned without poll releases). Given that Kerry had done a bit better in the tracking poll, this was hardly surprising.

In June, the tracking poll got even tighter. Neither candidate ever managed to obtain a four-point lead. The candidates had the same number of days each with a single point lead. On three days, had a two-point lead. Kerry had a similar lead on one day. Kerry led by three points thrice. Bush lead by three points twice. The mean showed a tie to a tenth of a percentage point, 45.4% to 45.4%. Given this, it would not have been surprising to see the electoral score remain the same or tighten a bit as Rasmussen released state-by-state results for the month of June.

That is not what happened.

During June, Mr. Rasmussen released the same 22 states as before, along with two others. By the time all were tallied, Kerry's electoral vote total had swelled to 57. Pollster Scott Rasmussen noted that of the 22 repeating states, more had moved in the President's direction (11 to 10 that moved Kerry's way, with Illinois remaining steady). But that is misleading. Mammoth California (55 electoral votes) moved 6 points towards Kerry. Florida (27 electoral votes) moved 5 points towards Kerry. Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) moved 6 points towards Kerry. In comparison, the states that moved towards Bush either did so more modestly, such as Texas (34 electoral votes) moving one point, or were small states, such as tiny Maine (4 electoral votes) moving 18 points.

Intuitively, the numbers did not seem to fit together along with the Presidential tracking poll's results, despite coming directly from the tracking poll. But as sometimes intuition can lead one astray, I decided to do some calculations.

I calculated the weighted mean result for the twenty-two states released both months. I used the same basic method I use for the Electoral College Breakdown's 'Calculated National Result' to do so. I subtract two from each state's electoral votes, to give the number of electoral votes that is roughly proportional to that state's population; this is the number of Representatives a state has, with DC getting one. I take the resulting number and multiply it times Bush's support in the state, and times Kerry's support in the state. Then the sum of these numbers can be divided by the sum of the Representatives to give the weighted mean result. If this sounds complicated, it really is not; it just means that California, with its 55 electoral votes, will count five times as much in the average as Missouri, with its 11 electoral votes.

The states involved both months were Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.

During the month of May, these states in aggregate (according to the calculated value) polled 46.6% for Kerry, 44.1% for Bush. Given that during the month overall Kerry had a 0.6% lead, this did not raise my eyebrows; a lot of the states not released were solid Bush states so it seemed to make sense that they would offset Kerry's lead in those 22 states somewhat.

In June, Kerry's advantage in these states according to the calculated value expanded to 4.3 points, despite the tracking poll for the month being even closer.

The disparity gets harder to brush off when one considers which states are involved. While many of the states involved are battleground states, the primary attribute that most of these states share is that they are larger states, since those are the states that Rasmussen collects sufficient data each month to release as a standalone state poll (the smaller states released get supplemental calls made; I will touch on this later). The twenty-two states in question account for nearly three-quarters of the House of Representatives. In order to balance out a four-plus point lead in these states, the remaining states would have to favor Bush considerably.

But a quick glance at the remaining states shows some problems with this concept. First, in June Rasmussen released two more states from the tracking poll data: Maryland and Washington. They too showed Kerry ahead comfortably; with them included Kerry had a 4.6 point lead in states representing approximately 77.5% of the nation's population.

Further, there were other states that were not going to be involved in closing the gap. While I have been unable to verify this, most pollsters do not include Hawaii or Alaska in their calls; even if Rasmussen does their effect on the overall numbers probably would cancel each other out. While Bush probably leads in Alaska by more than Kerry leads in Hawaii, the latter has more population.

Similarly, there are a few obvious Kerry states in the remaining group. Where Bush has Idaho, Kerry has Rhode Island. Where Bush has Kansas, Kerry has Connecticut. And while there is not a precise match among Bush states for Vermont, it plus DC would likely provide a nice counter-weight for South Dakota. In all probability, neither candidate would have much of a lead on the other among these states; it would be close to a tie among them. And if the results were a tie in these states, then in order to counter-balance the 4.6 Kerry lead in the two dozen states released, Bush would need to have a twenty-point lead in the remaining states. Is this feasible?

There are some very solid Bush states in the remaining group, such as Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Utah has polled as much as a 45-point advantage. Other recent polls have Indiana as a 16-point advantage, Kentucky a 13 point one, Mississippi 31, and Montana 20. I think it is reasonable that Bush's lead in these states combined is no more than 30 points; I used a result of Bush 60, Kerry 30 for them and determined that would mean the remaining states would have to have had a weighted mean result of Bush 45.2%, Kerry 31.0% to bring the national result to the 44.5% tie that was shown by the tracking poll.

What is the problem with this? The remaining states that would need this fourteen point Bush lead are Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Louisiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. It is not bloody likely that Bush has anywhere near a 15-point lead over these states.

I immediately looked to see if any of my assumptions might invalidate these calculations. The first thing that crossed my mind was the impact of rounding. When Rasmussen reports Iowa as Kerry 48, Bush 44, perhaps it is really Kerry 47.5, Bush 44.4. This would make the state results appear further than they would be impacting the national result. I redid my calculations to see what would happen if I assumed the worst-case rounding effect. It brought the Kerry lead in the 24 released states down to 3.8 points, but still made it that the last group of battleground states would need a 9 point average Bush lead. I then thought that perhaps the states I thought would cancel each other out might not, but even when I gave Bush a 10-point lead among them rather than it being a tie, it did not significantly alter the results. Finally, I decided to check if my use of electoral votes (minus two) as the weighting factor might not be valid; instead, I weighted each state by their votes cast in the 2000 election. Again, this did not change the answer; the group of states remaining at the end would need a 10-point Bush lead.

I then considered the possible causes for this disparity. Could it mean that Rasmussen is under-representing Kerry-leaning states in his daily tracking poll? Perhaps, although this is unlikely since the same effect did not show in May, and since his tracking poll has shown what most other pollsters were showing throughout June-- a tie race, sometimes with one guy ahead by a few points and sometimes with the other guy ahead by a few points. Could it be that the supplemental polls done to give certain states enough interviews to make a reasonable margin of error be the explanation? Doubtful, since the smaller states released were generally more favorable to President Bush. The larger states that provided Mr. Kerry with that unbalance-able lead were mostly the larger states where no supplemental interviews would be conducted.

I do not know what is causing the disparity. The most likely explanation is that he has a turnout model for each state and a separate one for the national popular vote, and they are slightly different and they do not seamlessly fit together. For polling junkies, Rasmussen has been a mixed blessing. His output is prolific, so he provides plenty of information that helps in forming a picture of where the election stands. Yet in 2000, no major pollster was off in the national popular vote as much as he, and while he nailed many of the fifty states within the margin of error of his polls, he had some noticeable misses, more than would be explained by random chance (approximately one in twenty would be the proper ratio). In 2004, many of his results to date are in line with other pollsters, although in some places he is showing a different picture than others (such as New Jersey). And, as shown above, in some ways his own numbers are casting doubt on other of his own numbers. All of this is not intended to be a slam against Rasmussen or his polls; I use them extensively in my analysis. It is intended to show that sometimes, it helps to consider if one is getting conflicting data and in polling, there is often going to be conflicting data. It is intended to convey the lesson that skepticism is the friend of a discerning poll-reader, and that having the patience to wait for repeated results from different sources is the best way to ensure that one is getting an accurate picture of the underlying race.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

There were a ton of polls released this week, mostly by the aforementioned Rasmussen Reports. They were favorable to Mr. Kerry, and as such all three views of the ECB have swung towards the Democrat.

The Battlegrounds:

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Maine	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Bush, Slight
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Missouri	Bush +3	Yes	Bush, Slight
North Carolina	Bush +13	No	Bush, Lean
Virginia	Bush +8	No	Bush, Lean
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 220, Bush 205	Kerry 282, Bush 252
ECB Classic	Kerry 253, Bush 194	Kerry 322, Bush 205
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 239, Bush 225	Kerry 282, Bush 256
Calculated National Result	Kerry 46.0%, Bush 44.9%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry +20, Bush +19	Kerry +56, Bush -7
ECB Classic	Kerry +26, Bush -19	Kerry +49, Bush -47
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry +2, Bush -5	Kerry +24, Bush -26
Calculated National Result	Kerry +2.2%, Bush unchanged.

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	Idaho
	Electoral Votes: 4
	2000 Result
	Bush 67%
	Gore 28%

Background: LBJ beat Goldwater by a point. That's the best the Democrats have to show here since 1948.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/17/04	Greg Smith & Associates*	Link	RV	6.9%	Bush	55%	Kerry	23%	Bush +32
6/14/04	Greg Smith & Associates	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	25%	Bush +30

* Poll of just Treasure Valley (Ada County and Canyon County)

Punditry: So let me get this straight-- we now have two polls from Idaho, and a poll from Alaska, and tons of polls from Alabama, but we cannot get a single poll from Delaware? Safe for Bush.

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	Alaska
	Electoral Votes: 3
	2000 Result
	Bush 59%
	Gore 28%

Background: No Democrat wins since Johnson. Perot came within 2 points of Clinton the first time.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
6/30/04	Dittman Research (R)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	33%	Bush +23

Punditry: A partisan poll, but I think we can take it's results at face value-- Bush is going to win Alaska comfortably. In a separate poll that did not include the Presidential horserace question, Tony Knowles continues to lead Lisa Murkowski, although his margin is down to 2.6 points.

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	Massachusetts
	Electoral Votes: 12
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 33%

Background: They like them liberal in Massachusetts. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16
4/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6
12/03	KRC Communications Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/5/04	University of Massachusetts	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	32%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +22
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	33%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +25
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	31%	Kerry	60%	Kerry +29

Punditry: And here I was, hoping that the whole spat with the Mayor of Boston was going to make Massachusetts competitive...

Safe for Kerry.

(Do I need to spell out that I am kidding?)

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	Texas
	Electoral Votes: 34
	2000 Result
	Bush 58%
	Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/6/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	54%	Kerry	35%	Bush +19
5/15/04	Scripps Howard Texas Poll	Link	1000 RV	3%	Bush	58%	Kerry	29%	Bush +29
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	38%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	55%	Kerry	37%	Bush +18

Punditry: Safe for Bush. I have nothing to add.

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	New Jersey
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Gore 56%
	Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10

Punditry: 6, 3, 6, -4, -3 on the one hand. 10, 12, 12 on the other. What are these two lists of numbers? The first list is the sequence of poll results for New Jersey from pollsters not named Scott Rasmussen. The second list is the sequence of New Jersey releases from Rasmussen (both lists in reverse chronologic order). So this poll has something for partisans on both sides to cheer. For the Kerryites, they can look and see a double digit lead in a state that Kerry must and should have. For Bushies, they can look and see that Rasmussen is just plain reading the state differently than everyone else, but even with that he has shown a slight uptick for the President. Leaning Towards Kerry.

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	Iowa
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4

Punditry: The mirror image of the previously updated state, Missouri. The same 48-44 result, but with opposite leaders. Both states had been moved from slight advantage to leaning the last time I updated them. Both are floating right on the border between the designations. For Missouri, I left it as Leaning towards Bush, and here I am leaving Iowa as Leaning Towards Kerry. There is one difference though; according to Rasmussen's numbers, Bush improved his standing in Missouri from May to June by 3 points in the margin between the candidates. In Iowa, Kerry did not improve his standing similarly; Bush gained four points on the margin.

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	F		Maine
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Gore 49%
			Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +11
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +9
3/3/04	Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5.0%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
5/20/04	Critical Insights	Link	552 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	35%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +19
6/12/04	Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41.0%	Kerry	43.5%	Kerry +2.5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1

Punditry: I knew this was coming when I saw the mid-month update. The Strategic Marketing poll was indicator number two. And now this, which showed that the mid-month Rasmussen update was not just a spike; as I explained in the Florida Update issued earlier today, a spike in a tracking poll caused by some random outlying sample shows movement that stagnates until that sample rolls out. The Maine movement looks distinctly not like a spike. If there was an outlying sample, it was in the May numbers. However, given that two other polls had double digit leads for Kerry back towards the Democratic primaries, I think the more likely explanation than outliers is that there has been steady tightening of the race, to where right now it is anyone's to win. Maine re-enters the ranks of the battleground states, and is now just a Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	F		New Mexico
			Electoral Votes: 5
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque**	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

** Poll was not exactly a matchup poll, but rather a comparison of the favorability for each.

Punditry: Quite a different result since early April for American Research Group. As I mentioned in the Michigan Update earlier today, ARG has been consistent this election year in coming up with results that are favorable to Kerry. In New Mexico, we do not have any other companies (other than Zogby's internet polls) to use for comparison. That said, in the other states they have shown little movement; here, they had things even but have shown distinct movement towards Kerry. American Research Group's party weighting in their polls generally is pretty good at being near what it was in the previous election, although in New Mexico this poll they have about 5% more Democrats than turned out in 2000 according to exit polls. I'll be looking for a poll to confirm this movement, and in the interim designate New Mexico as having a Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	F		Ohio
			Electoral Votes: 20
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	4.1%	Bush	44.8%	Kerry	49.4%	Kerry +4.6
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.1%	Bush	49.1%	Kerry	46.3%	Kerry +2.8
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	2.5%	Bush	50.5%	Kerry	45.1%	Bush +5.4%
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: The change has been gradual but steady from the end of May to the start of July-- no spikes here in the Rasmussen Ohio data. In March he had it Kerry +4, then it was Bush +2, mid-month it was Bush +3, and now it is Bush +4.

In contrast, American Research Group has seen no movement and has Kerry solidly ahead. The different methods for the two companies are leading to drastically different views of the state. There are some conflicting results here, which is about what one would expect from a state considered by most experts to be extremely close and a focus of both campaigns; but at the midway point of the year, Ohio has a Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	F		Missouri
			Electoral Votes: 11
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%	Bush +10
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%	Bush +5
2/14/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/2/04	Suffolk University	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	39%	Bush +11
3/19/04	Decision Research (D)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	566 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	37%	Bush +11
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	755 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2

Punditry: Slight Advantage for Bush. Bush leads by two among probable voters, and he leads by two among certain voters. In both cases, that is essentially a tie. Bush leads by 10 among women; Kerry has a 4 point edge among women. Bush is getting 94% of Republicans; Kerry is getting 90% of Democrats. Independents are going to Bush by 1 point. All in all, a pretty boring poll for a pretty exciting race.

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	F		Michigan
			Electoral Votes: 17
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3

Punditry: Rasmussen checks in with some already dated information that is right in line with the Epic/MRA numbers and the Mitchell Research numbers. Earlier today I looked at the changes in designations for Michigan since mid-May; I noticed that Michigan has bounced between Leaning Towards Kerry and Tossup, but never making it over to any of the Bush categories. While a lead this slight is pretty meaningless, a lead this slight repeatedly over poll after poll after poll, with only a few exceptions, suggests that while Kerry's lead may be small it is very real. As such, I am moving Michigan to Leaning Towards Kerry.

---

	Virginia
	Electoral Votes: 13
	2000 Result
	Bush 52%
	Gore 44%

Background: The Democrats have won here just once since Truman- when Johnson beat Goldwater. Despite the result dominance, the margins have been fairly competitive more times than not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
12/3/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Clark	33%	Bush +15
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/8/04	SurveyUSA	Link	686 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5

Punditry: No movement of note for Rasmussen. No reason that I see to change the designation. Leaning Towards Bush.

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	Alabama
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30	Bush +30
3/18/04	USA Polling Group	Link	405 adults	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	27%	Bush +32
5/3/04	SurveyUSA	Link	743 LV	3.7%	Bush	55%	Kerry	36%	Bush +19
5/13/04	USA Polling Group	Link	400 Adults	5%	Bush	55%	Kerry	33%	Bush +22
5/20/04	Capital Survey Research	Link	785 RV	4%	Bush	56%	Kerry	37%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	57%	Kerry	36%	Bush +21
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	52%	Kerry	38%	Bush +14

Punditry: One of the things that has been striking to me with this round of Rasmussen's polling results is that all the Kerry states have moved more to Kerry (except for Michigan, slightly and tiny Maine by quite a bit), some big tossup states have moved towards Kerry, and a number of Bush states have moved towards Kerry-- all despite the fact that during the month the tracking poll from whence these came did not move. I am not really sure what to make of that. This is quite a bit closer than any other Alabama poll has shown (and it still is not all that close) and as such I will wait for another poll to validate this before I consider moving Alabama away from Safe for Bush.

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	Illinois
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 55%
	Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +2
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +11
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +8
3/3/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	36%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +18
3/3/04	Rasmussen	Link	1500 LV	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +15
3/13/04	Copley News Service/Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +8
5/12/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/24/04	Market Shares Corp.	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +16
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	742 LV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +13
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16

Punditry: No change from June in Illinois according to Rasmussen. It remains a Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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	Georgia
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 55%
	Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
10/15/03	Zogby	Link	400 LV	4.5%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Bush +13
10/23/03	Shapiro Research Group	Link	RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +8
2/4/04	Shapiro Research Group	NA	RV	4.5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	44%	Bush +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
6/2/04	Insider Advantage	Link	RV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	32%	Bush +17
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	41%	Bush +11

Punditry: A slight one point degradation in Bush's June margin means that the state is pretty much unchanged from where it was. Strong Advantage for Bush.

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/24/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51.3%	Kerry +9.3
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/6/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.8%	Bush	43.6%	Kerry	50.7%	Kerry +7.1
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/21/04	Zogby Interactive*	Link	LV	3.9%	Bush	45.2%	Kerry	49.8%	Kerry +4.6%
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9

* Zogby Interactive polls involve a self-selected group of respondants, and as such are highly suspect. They are considered extremely little (if at all) within the ECB.

Punditry: As has been common in the Rasmussen June polls, this represents a bit of a gain for Kerry, but still leaves the state as Leaning Towards Kerry. According to Rasmussen, Bush's support level in Minnesota lags his approval rating by 6 points.

I have been asked by a few people what I make of Rasmussen's June state polls. They will be the subject of this week's ECB article, coming Wednesday.

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	New York
	Electoral Votes: 31
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Dem +7
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +16
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Dem +8
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Dem +5
1/7/04	Marist	Link	617 RV	4%	Bush	34%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Dem +2
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader an option	2.7%	Bush	35%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +14
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader not an option	2.7%	Bush	36%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +17
4/15/04	Marist	Link	602 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/22/04	Siena Researh Institute	Link	625 RV	3.9%	Bush	32%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	57%	Kerry +23
6/14/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,466 RV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +18
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	30%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +28

Punditry: Kerry widens his lead according to Rasmussen, with a result 10 points more favorable than a mid-month Quinnipiac registered voter poll. And as in Minnesota which I just updated, he lags his approval rating by 7 points in the horserace question. Safe for Kerry.

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	Washington
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Gore 50%
	Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9

** Done for a 'private public policy client'.

Punditry: Oddly, Washington was not a state Rasmussen had culled from his nationwide tracking poll in May, but here is his result for June. It represents a 3 point margin increase for Kerry from a Mid-March Rasmussen poll. Most other Washington polls have shown the race closer although many of those were paid for by parties or PACs. Leaning Towards Kerry.

According to the Rasmussen writeup:

In Washington, Kerry leads 49% to 43% among men and 51% to 29% among women.

A rough calculation tells me that if true, and if Bush is getting 40% of the likely voters overall, then by my calculations 61% of likely voters in Washington are male.

Correction: Later, they updated their numbers to say 51-39 among women, which is much more reasonable.

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	Oklahoma
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Bush 60%
	Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/1/04	Wilson Research	NA	300 RV	5.7%	Bush	50%	Kerry	40%	Bush +10
4/1/04	Insider Advantage	Link	400 Residents	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Wilson Research	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	34%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	58%	Kerry	34%	Bush +24
6/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	651 LV	4%	Bush	60%	Kerry	34%	Bush +26
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	63%	Kerry	31%	Bush +32

Punditry: It was not all that long ago that I remember Insider Advantage pointing to Oklahoma as a possible surprise state for the Democrats. Recent polls by several companies make that look increasingly unlikely. I think I understated that sufficiently. This represents an 8 point padding in the margin from the previous Rasmussen result. Safe for Bush.

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	F		Oregon
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Gore 46.96%
			Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
5/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +4
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
5/10/04	Riley Research	Link	776 LV	3.51%	Bush	44%	Kerry	39%	Bush +5
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
6/1/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8

Punditry: Quite an improvement in Kerry's Oregon numbers according to Rasmussen, and not unbelievable at all given the results of the Moore Information poll. There are times that I do not like being right; after the May 10th Riley poll (that showed Bush up by five) came out, I stated:

It is deja vu all over again. I get an Oregon poll, I move Oregon over to slight Kerry. I get another Oregon poll that says the exact opposite, and I move it back to tossup. Tossup. This is not a good poll for Bush though, since likely voters are dissatisfied with both international affairs and with the economy. They just haven't warmed up to Kerry. This poll shows Bush ahead, but suggests that if things don't change he won't be.

Well, things did not change, or so it appears. Leaning Towards Kerry.

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	Maryland
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 57%
	Bush 40%

Background: Since the 1960 election, the only Republicans to carry Maryland were Nixon for his re-elect, Reagan for his re-elect, and George H. W. Bush during his first campaign. Clinton did not need Perot to win here either time. This is a Democrat state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/12/04	Potomac, Inc	Link	1,200 LV	2.8%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	51%	Dem +10
2/8/04	Gonzalez	Link	818 RV	3.5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
2/27/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +9
3/24/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	825 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/9/04	Gonzales Research and Marketing	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +14

Punditry: Strong for Kerry. It was not too long ago that Maryland was looking fairly competitive. But this is what happens when a party 'comes home' to its candidate.

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	F		North Carolina
			Electoral Votes: 15
			2000 Result
			Bush 56%
			Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/14/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15

Punditry: Whoa. Gallup is a polling firm for who I have a ton of respect; much of the development of modern polling techniques and methodologies were developed by Gallup people. They do not do individual state polls all that often but their state polls have usually turned out to be fairly accurate. Experience tells me, though, that when a result seems very out of line with others to tread carefully. Still, thinking probabilities, one is much more likely to get a double digit result if the race is a 7-9 point margin than if it is a 2-3 point margin, so even if it is an outlier it does tell us something. I am moving North Carolina back to Leaning Towards Bush.

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	F		Arkansas
			Electoral Votes: 6
			2000 Result
			Bush 51%
			Gore 46%

Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ. Humphrey came in third here, behind Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/8/04	Arkansas State University	Link	Adults	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	565 RV	4.2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
5/2/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	546 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2

Punditry: And right back to Slight Advantage for Bush. Twelve weeks ago SurveyUSA had it a two point margin, and now they have it a two point margin, well within the margin of error. Among certain voters, Bush leads. Among probable voters, Kerry has the advantage (likely voters are certain voters and probable voters combined).

---

	F		Florida
			Electoral Votes: 27
			2000 Result
			Bush 48.85%
			Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3

Punditry: SurveyUSA checks in on the sunshine state and agrees that there has been movement towards Kerry; their last result in Florida was 10 points more favorable for the President. Talk about regional effects, though! Kerry leads by 26 points in the southeastern portions of the state while Bush leads by 8 elsewhere. Kerry is dominating against moderates and independents as well (24 points and 10 points respectively); percentages like that are not uncommon during the bounce period. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

---

	F		New Hampshire
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Bush 48%
			Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
4/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/26/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	491 LV	4.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
6/9/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1

Punditry: ARG had it a push, and now Becker has it either a 3 point Kerry lead or a 1 point Bush lead, but among registered voters. That's a Tossup.

---

	South Carolina
	Electoral Votes: 8
	2000 Result
	Bush 57%
	Gore 41%

Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/28/03	Hickman Research	Link	?	?	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +16
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	39%	Bush +10
6/29/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Kerry	36%	Bush +17
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	710 LV	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7

Punditry: Strong Advantage for Bush, although probably a closer result than many would expect. Chalk this up to John Edwards, who is originally from South Carolina. If this margin holds then the state will need redesignation. This is the first state out of fifteen so polled by SurveyUSA where a majority of Kerry voters say they are for him rather than against Bush.

Also included in this poll is a Senate matchup, and while the Democrats have high hopes for Inez Tenenbaum, DeMint leads by 7 points already.

---

	Pennsylvania
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
			1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
			839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
			1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: A 1-2 point Edwards bounce in Pennsylvania, but with a distinct regional edge to it; Kerry has improved in Southwestern Pennsylvania. However, it may not be Edwards at all-- it may be due to the recovery of Governor Ed Rendell's political standing. While the margins are overstated by a few points due to his being a registered voter poll, it does reinforce that there is now a consistent but Slight Advantage for Kerry in the Keystone state.

Bush is giving up 12% of registered Republicans to Kerry. That runs counter to my suggestion that part of Kerry's improvement is due to Rendell; those numbers look like what a candidate gets when his opponent is basking in his bounce period. I anticipate Pennsylvania to tighten back up again at the Republican convention, if not before.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 46.0%, Bush 44.9%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	WA (11) K50-B41 6/30/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	NH (4) B45-K44 6/20/04	WI (10) B46-K42 6/23/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	NJ (15) K51-B41 6/30/04	ME (4) K46-B45 6/30/04	-	OH (20) B48-K44 6/30/04	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04	IA (7) K48-B44 6/30/04	NM (5) K49-B42 7/8/04	-	MO (11) B48-K46 7/8/04	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04	WY (3)
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	CA (55) K52-B38 6/30/04	MI (17) K50-B43 K47-B44 7/8/04	FL (27) K47-B44 7/12/04	-	AR (6) B49-K47 7/12/04	AZ (10) B47-K35* 6/27/04	GA (15) B52-K41 6/30/04	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
NY (31) K58-B30 6/30/04	IL (21) K53-B37 6/30/04	MN (10) K50-B41 6/30/04	PA (21) K46-B41* 7/11/04	-	-	VA (13) B50-K45 7/8/04	SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
MA (12) K60-B31 6/30/04	-	OR (7) K50-B42 6/30/04	-	-	-	NC (15) B56-K41 7/12/04	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B52-K36 6/21/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B63-K31 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B52-K38 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
61	92	67	62	4	47	63	43	99
220			113			205

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

[Coop]

Fitting that your weekly hits right after I finish reading about Kerry cutting back his ads in AZ, MO and the South. [giggle]

[cajungirl]

Is it too early to get worried? I think I am.

[GVnana]

And the winner is?

[GiveEmDubya]

Not too bad going into the Democrat convention.

[Dales]

Weekly ping, and thanks as always to neets for working the ping list, KQQL, Anti-Guv, ambrose, Black Razor, Tom Ewall, and I am sure I am forgetting a pinger-to-polls or proofreader or two for all you do to help me as well! Thank you.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Thanks, Dales. I've been waiting for this to come to get your opinion on the latest Rasmussen polls and also ask what you think of the methodology switch that SUSA did in their last 2 Florida polls.

When I looked at the most recent , they had a sample of 37% R, 38% D and 24% I compared to 41% R, 34% D, and 24% I in June. Which is more realistic?

[Coop]

Not only is it too early to be worried, but what in the world are you worried about?

[COEXERJ145]

I wouldn't worry. The polls are way too fluid to accurately predict any real kind of a trend. Bush is up one week and Kerry is up another. Then it goes cycles again and again.

And people put way too much faith in Rasmussen. He was off in 2000, off in 2002, and probably off again.

[Dales]

The more recent of the two.

[POA2]

I check in on Dales site every few days - Frustrating to see where we stand right now - Numbers have to start changing our way daily from this point out -

As an incumbent I continue to insist time is not our our (GWB) side - The longer Kerry stays even to in the lead....the more likely he wins in NOV -

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

I would note despite the rash of glum polls coming out in the states lately that even if the election were held today, it would fall to FL to decide it. The irony of that is I have decided that FL most certainly won't decide it this year but as of today it might.

More polls showing OH staying on our side which is good news, also good in NH, ME, VA, AZ, and the Carolinas, and bad news coming out of FL, PA, MI, and other battlegrounds. As I said in my other post though, methodology alone counted for 8 of the 10 pt switch in the SUSA FL poll.

Also, Drudge is reporting Kerry is semi-pulling out advertising $$ in MO, AZ, and the South. That could mean MO is more than Slight Advantage to Bush.

[NittanyLion]

I know reelection campaigns are seldom close at the end, but for the life of me I just can't imagine any of these states moving radically in the direction of one candidate or the other. As much as history dictates one candidate or the other should win comfortably, I wonder if this won't be a nailbiter...

[Dales]

Heh. :-)

Lots of nervous nellies around now. I guess I understand it, even if I don't share their apprehension.

[Cableguy]

Have you been able to analyze how much Kerry got a bump in each swing state due to Edwards vs. increased ads buy Kerry vs. other factors like Iraq? I know it is hard to tell, but you probably have a better feel than others.

[Dales]

It sure looks that way now, doesn't it?

I still think it will break relatively open in the end, the way the Reagan/Carter race did. That one looked like a real nail-biter too.

[familyop]

LOL!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

In that case, its more likely that the situation is relatively calm in FL with Kerry leading slightly in most polls, but within the MOE. This is a state Kerry has no business winning and hopefully Bush gets more than 34% of the Hispanic vote SUSA is giving him.

[cajungirl]

This seems to be compilation of a number of polls. I guess I am worried about the state of the nation if Kerry pulls off a win. It would seem to me that there has never been a clearer choice in how we want this country to be than in this election. Both candidates and veeps represent stark differences. Last election, the dems had lieberman and that sort of blurred things. This time it is so clear to me, if Kerry wins, the downhill trek of this country is going to go rapidly. That is why I worry.

[Dales]

There has been way too few polls to come up with any meaningful answer to that. I'd need a handful of polls per state, and I doubt we will get that.