Posted on 07/14/2004 6:10:58 PM PDT by antivenom
WASHINGTON - Despite promises to expand the election playing field, John Kerry has reduced his ad spending in Missouri, Arizona and throughout the South in the run-up to the Democratic presidential convention.
Kerry's advisers said they were not shrinking their political map, only saving resources for later in the campaign and redirecting ad money to hotly contested states like Florida and Ohio. President Bush's campaign called the strategy a sign of weakness in GOP-leaning territory.
(Excerpt) Read more at mercurynews.com ...
Please, I beg you, stop looking at current polls! Pay attention after the conventions are over and we get past Labor Day. For reference go back to 2002 to the Florida Governor's race between Jeb Bush and Bill McBride. Terry McAuliffe was spouting that Jeb Bush was history in July/August. Dick Gephardt was predicting a forty seat pickup in the house for the Dems. Jeb Bush "slaughtered" Bill McBride and Gephardt was only off by forty-six seats! Polls at this point are meaningless!! GW Bush will win with big numbers in state electoral votes and the popular vote. Take my word for it, The Republicans have not yet begun to fight!!
If we all vote, Kerry won't be elected.
I can only hope you are right....
First of all, thanks for your service to our country.
Second of all, the panhandle part of FL is overwhelmingly conservative. They're not going to be fooled this time and will continue voting no matter what NBC says.
I feel better about FL than OH.....
I'm not.....
especially once the economy in Ohio starts showing the same jobs growth the rest of the country is seeing it won't matter...
"I have notice with interest that recently other than the Kerry/the battle seems to have been in PA, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Interestingly they were all won by the Dims in 2000. I think that bodes well for what the internal polling of both candidates is telling them."
I noticed that as well and Bush is going to Democrat areas in those states. Kerry doesn't venture into the GOP areas in those states. You can tell where the battle is being won by which canidate is playing on the other ones turf.
"Take my word for it, The Republicans have not yet begun to fight!!"
Guess the rest of us can just go to sleep, forget about it, and leave an old grey fox in charge. Yep! Sounds like the ticket to me.
That is good news out of FL. Haven't heard much about the new machines yet but everyone knew the dirty little secret about the punch cards and how amenable to fraud they were. I voted on one in 2000, the concept of dimpled and hanging chads is utterly laughable. I hope W can pull it off in FL bigtime this year.
This is what he should be doing, while maintaining a rear guard presence in FL and OH. The fact that Kerry is campaigning in these states is somewhat indicative of the toss up nature of the polls right now but in October these things will tell us all we need to know.
The fact that Kerry is pulling out of MO and AZ and has pulled out of AR and LA also tell us these states are more than just a slight advantage to Bush right now. They are becoming fairly safe.
Assuming he gets the Gore states, Kerry could win IF he were to win:
(A) Missouri (hence Gephardt was given serious consideration),
(B) Arizona (hence McCain), or
(C) North Carolina (hence Edwards).
Plus, Edwards might help the Democrats retain their Senate seat from that state, making his selection as VP candidate a twofer.
Well ... post-VP selection polling indicates Edwards is not helping enough in North Carolina to make a difference.
Now, Kerry has to re-focus his resources. What states can he pick up, if not North Carolina?
Obviously, he has no particular reason to think he will carry Arizona or Missouri.
West Virginia and New Hampshire plus the Gore states produce, I think, a tie in the electoral college (and a Republican win in the U.S. House of Representatives).
THUS ... Ohio and Florida are his best chances.
In Florida, I think our side is in better shape than four years ago because of the Jewish vote. Joe Lieberman in not on the Democratic ticket and it is obvious that Bush is a strong friend of Israel and for the only hope for peace in the Middle East (which involves the replacement of despotic regimes in the regions with democratic governments).
In Ohio, our side is in slighly worse shape because of the economy and a Republican governor who raised taxes.
On the other had, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were also very close in 2000, their side has the problem of Democrat governors who raised taxes.
Plus: the defense of marriage is going to be on the ballot in Michigan and several other Gore states that we could win with a good turnout.
Right now, the polls reflect Kerry's outspending of our guy, plus the media focus on Edwards, and the swallowing of the hard pill that we went to war in Iraq based on bad intel.
Well, we'll be outspending Kerry between the Democratic convention and ours, the media focus will turn on our convention with powerful reminders of 9-11, Mayor Rudy, our superstar foreign policy team of Powell, Rumsfeld and Rice.
Plus, the economy continues to recover and generate jobs.
Plus, we are winning the war on terror not simply becuase we have al-Qaida on the run, but because of the advance of democracy in the Arab world and this includes getting rid of Saddam.
BUT ... we need to win not only the Battleground states, but we need to pick up at least two or three Senate seats, we need to hold the Congress, and we need to continue to make inroads in the state legislatures of our country.
What I meant is that if you think the Pubbies are fighting back now, you haven't seen anything yet. As for me, I want the entire "traitor" Democrat Party destroyed at the polling booth. This Kerry/Edwards ticket isn't lightweight, it is featherweight. The Pubbies have a golden opportunity to cripple the Democrat party for years. Of course, Bill & Hillary Clinton will be GW Bush allies. They too, want Kerry & Edwards utterly destroyed! The battle will start heating up as the conventions conclude! If you think I meant we should lay back and coast, you have it all wrong. I want to send the Democrat party into the black hole of obscurity where it rightfully belongs forever.
I agree BUT they won't use Florida as the battleground...they TOO have "expereince" in these matters and have most likely behind the scenes have taken measures not to be Flori-Duh again...this time it will be either Ohio or Pennsylvania...maybe Michigan...where they can EFFECTIVELY use UNION crowds to INTIMIDATE folks like FREEPERS!!!!
After the 2000 fiasco I declared WAR on illegal voting have since have worked every election HERE In the Houston area!
I have signed my self up to work in a "hostile" precinct this Novemeber election...I will be willing to be an alternate judge at an Democrat precinct...I will NOT as long as I live ever turn my back on this process that has been seriously compromised by crooks!
Nevertheless, I'm baffled by how Kerry has even this much support, and expect it to start to erode at virtually any moment.
Bump for you. Further info on Kerry cutting back advertising. Some here may be better able than I to answer you're Q's.
Bump to good news.
Given the current polling Florida does not seem to be in the bag for Bush.
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