May I ask why? Mental exercises like this are a bad habit of mine but, for the life of me, I can't get anywhere with their thinking.
Because they'e not stupid....never forget that..look, if they don't manage an attack during the conventions...then the basic thesis will be that WE prevented it..ergo, a win for us, a defeat for them...same thing during trhe Olympics..it's a big, tempting taget..but security is massive...so if we prevent/foil it..it's a loss for them..better to take a soft target..get a strike..maintain the aura of invincibility/inevitability...my prediction.FWIW...in Europ..just after the Olympics..when collective breath is released...over NO attacks...I'd say Italy...because of strong support for US in Iraq..that would, IMHO backfire.better choice is France..which has cracked down HARD of late on radical Isalmics..