[atomicpossum]

How are these factors in your graph arrived at? Is it based on the rather biased polling of most of the major news organizations? Is it public opinion, or the assessment of the speculators, both of which is effected by the same polling? I'd ind that graph more convincing if it were a measurement of something concrete.

[headsonpikes]

The assessment of the speculators is as concrete as it gets.

Just step right up and lay your money down!

[Momaw Nadon]

Is it public opinion, or the assessment of the speculators, both of which is effected by the same polling?

The percentages for each state are determined by political futures traders.

They are betting their own money on what the outcome will be.

I would say that it is closer to the "assessment of the speculators" who have a financial stake in the outcome.

[Optimist]

I'd take issue with 10 electoral votes (definitely) going to Kerry from Wisconsin. Latest polling... (republicandiva)

How are these factors in your graph arrived at? Is it based on the rather biased polling of most of the major news organizations? Is it public opinion, or the assessment of the speculators, both of which is effected by the same polling? ... (atomicpossum)

IMO this is the "poll" that matters more than any other than the election itself, because it DOES consider the public attitude by people (speculators) with the most to lose (at this moment in time) ..... money.

Much like the market, the day-to-day events are affecting opinions suddenly ..... so where is the big edwards bump? (or resulting bush "big" dip?)

After 60 minutes, 9-11 commission, abu ghraib, clinton book, edwards announcement, cia report ....