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I am not despairing at all. I just think we'll have a damned tough race. We can win, if we work harder than ever and aren't complacent. Indeed, I believe that we will do these things, and therefore will win.

It is quite possible to win by a big margin in the electoral college based on narrow victories in many states. I think there is a chance of that happening for Bush. What will not happen is a blowout (57 percent or better) in the popular vote. Just not in the cards.

You cite Reagan '84, Bush '88, and Bush junior in '94.
I don't know which of these elections is the least like the one we face today, but all are quite different from it.

As for the post-Sept. 11 magic ... it was there two years ago or more, but it's long gone. Look at the polls concerning Iraq. Better yet, look at the polls in which people rate the most important issue facing the country.
Even granted that the real numbers are probably more favorable to Republican candidates and positions than the poll results would indicate, the issue rankings are rather discouraging. They tell me that lots of people would like to stick their heads in the sand and pretend we can turn the clock back 5 years to Clinton-style peacetime. Kerry is appealing very blatantly to this sentiment. It will undoubtedly work with more people than we'd like to expect. The question is whether we can counter it and get the American people to think and vote like adults.

Bush deserves a landslide, especially because of the extreme irresponsibility of the Democrats. But the liberal media and other Democratic forces and institutions are too powerful in this country to permit any more 60 percent landslides by conservative Republican presidential candidates. In addition, cultural and demographic trends have been running against us for decades.

Any political analyst, left, right, or center, would agree with the latter two statements. If you find a serious political analyst who doesn't, tell me. I'm all ears.

"I don't know which of these elections is the least like the one we face today, but all are quite different from it."

Not really. Reagan '84 featured a reasonably popular (at the time) incumbent Republican up against a far-left liberal who seemed (at the time) to be gaining ground. Sounds a lot like the 2004 race as it's currently taking shape.
The '88 election is different only in that the Republican running was not an incumbent. The far-left Democrat was a shoo-in according the polls... and lost badly.
The Texas election of '94 is most unlike this year's presidential election except for one detail: I cited it to make a point about Bush's ability to win elections which seem unwinnable.

"As for the post-Sept. 11 magic ... it was there two years ago or more, but it's long gone. Look at the polls concerning Iraq. Better yet, look at the polls in which people rate the most important issue facing the country."

Well, alright. Every poll I've seen has a solid majority of 60%+ saying that even though WMD weren't found in Iraq, the war was still worth it. Every poll I've seen ranks the top two issues in this election with national security as #1, the economy as #2. Every poll I've seen says that voters think Bush would do a better job on both than Kerry.

"In addition, cultural and demographic trends have been running against us for decades."

Actually... the generation of people who are just now hitting legal age to vote, or have been elegible for a couple of years leans strongly conservative. I should know: I'm a part of it. For every liberal 18 year old the news trots out, there are two conservative 18 year olds off-camera. In addition, if cultural trends run against conservatism, why does 80%+ of the public support banning gay marriage?

I'm sorry, I just don't think Kerry is much of a threat. I'm not saying Bush should be complacent. Far from it. Bush's springtime campaign ads successfully defined the image of Kerry in voters' minds as a flipflopping liberal, and most Americans hate politicans who pander regardless of which party they're in. I'm sorry, but unless a catastrophe happens, Bush has this thing won. The closer we get to election day, the more Kerry will have to expose himself, and to cite polling data for you, the more Kerry speaks, the worse his numbers get. When Kerry is off the cameras for a few days, his numbers go back up. With the serious campaign season coming up, and with at least one presidential debate guaranteed, Kerry will not make many in-roads with voters.

Of course, this is all just my opinion, and like Dennis Miller says, I could be wrong.