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See LS post at #32.

Timing is everything.

Coming up:

Brit report on investigation into Niger uranium buy next week

September: the ISG (WMD hunters) report, also supposedly a report from Libya to the effect that they were hosting the Iraqi nuclear program.

Also, POA2, the economic poll numbers have strengthened as well as the general approval numbers.

What I encounter as needing clarification for the average punter is the Dem claim of a imminent draft believed by moms who can't use the Internet and who are relying on NPR for their news. As troops come home, people tell me they are hearing that we did good things over there and are winning. 20k troops leave for home this week, IIRC. For my part, I am working on having an Army Reserve Major just back from Afghanistan speak to several churches to tell what she saw and how she feels about this WOT and about Iraq. Trust me: it is good stuff. She thinks we are on a humanitarian mission concerned w/civil and human rights, which will settle down the nervous moms.

I hear your concern and we have participated in many threads together, so I am not really arguing with your apprehension. I think you have a better ability w/stats then I do. I just think you sell Rove way short, as LS points out.

I am on the ground working for the campaign in a battleground state and we are very prepared and have committed volunteers coming out our ears in an area with a ot of high profile progressives dominating the media and the conversation. Lots of quietly determined voters are backing W, many who did not in 2000.

I am not a Pollyanna and indeed, can bite my nails with the best of them. I know the pitfalls. I have met campaign staff who are one step down from Mehlman and Rove. They point out to me that both are incredible detail freaks, for one thing. For another, whenever I have conveyed a concern of the base to these staffers, I see a move in the right direction from the campaign within days...moves that are taking place in Congress and reported by the media as well as moves on the ground in battleground states that soothe the base and encourage other supporters.

I am an overachiever who in all liklihood is driving the much younger staffer I work under to distraction, as I insist on all bases being covered and as efficient a management style as possible. I am not asleep nor overly trusting to chance. But I have confidence in Rove and I have confidence in W. The base is strong and the Dem base is split. If it wasn't, you wouldn't be reading about a Deanie floor fight, a Gore PAC endorsement of Algore for president, or the attempt to silence Nader. All the articles speaking of a conservative defection from W is so much wishful thinking, IMO. It is classic vote suppresion tactics. Winners don't need to do that.

IMO, the internals went positive for us and negative for Kerry in May. I base that on how both campaigns have acted since then. W spoke to some troops about then and he was relaxed for the 1st time in weeks. I think it was hairy there for awhile. I doubt our team is overly confident, either and I think they have more than few moves still in reserve.