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"I agree. There are snippets of leaks almost weekly indicating that the internals are spooking the Kerry campaign and giving confidence to the Bush campaign..IMO, it has been this way since about mid-May."

I hope you are right here (I seriously do) but I think this could be wishful thinking on your part - that you are seeing only what you want to see -

The fact is, as an incumbent - GWB historically is not sitting well right now - for a number of reasons -

1. Polls (and polls today are different in some ways...because of 24hr news they have much more of a "push" effect).

With that said, GWB is not sitting well in the polls - the horse race version Kerry has taken leads in many key States (MI,PA, FL, NM,) while closing the difference in many GWB States (MO,NC,VA, AR, WV NH)

2. DEM 527's have killed us - and the ROVE team had no answer and were caught 100% off guard - this has killed GWB since JAN 04 - DEM 527's have outspent GWB supporting 527's by over $70 million thus far and will outspent us by over $120 million come Nov -

3. John Kerry has raised more money then any opponent in history - He will lie and lie with this money.

4. The media have never been more partisan - they are nothing but a campaign tool for John Kerry - facts mean nothing to them (other then to hide them)

5. The GWB reelection team has been inept for months - They ran the worst reelection campaign in history from Oct 2003 until May 2004 (and it hasn't got much better since May even!!).