THE FUTURE OF LIBYA'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION PROGRAM
By Joshua Sinai
http://www.cdiss.org/col99apr27.htm
Although the recent surrender of two Libyan intelligence agents for trial in the Netherlands might bring the decade- long search for justice in the Lockerbie case to an end, questions remain about whether the Libyan government has stopped sponsoring terrorism and ceased work on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
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In fact, given Colonel Qadhafi's apparent willingness to abide by international law with respect to the Lockerbie case, this may be the most propitious moment for the international community to investigate the full proportions and intent of Libya's chemical and biological weapons program, including reported chemical and biological weapons research and development links between Tripoli and Baghdad.
With so much international attention directed to the large-scale unconventional weapons programs of Iraq and Iran, relatively little attention has been devoted to Libya, which has been described as "the patient proliferator." Yet, while remaining out of the proliferation spotlight since the controversy over the Rabta chemical weapons facility in 1990, Libya has quietly continued to construct what could potentially be a vast chemical and biological arsenal, including a reported joint chemical and biological weapons development program with Iraq. Indeed, until the United Nations Special Commission's (UNSCOM) recent departure, Saddam Hussein may have used Libya as a safe haven to avoid surveillance and inspection of Iraq's own WMD program.
International scrutiny of Libya's chemical and biological weapons program is critical because, according to numerous press reports, Tripoli is on the verge of succeeding in developing the capability to weaponize these agents, and to make the ballistic missiles to deliver them. Libya has built two of the largest CW production complexes in the developing world, at Rabta and Tarhunah, which possess a stockpile of an estimated 100 tons of chemical agents. The Tarhunah facility, which was erected in the 1990s, is located 50 miles southeast of Tripoli. It consists of a labyrinth of tunnels carved into the side of a hollowed-out mountain, and extends for more than six square miles. As with the Rabta plant, Libya has claimed at different times that Tarhunah is a petrochemical complex or that the facility's tunnels are part of the Great Man-Made River Project (GMMRP) to funnel water from Libya's southern aquifers to its coastal cities. Former CIA director John Deutch has called Tarhunah the world's largest underground chemical weapons plant. Other published reports claim that the GMMRP's underground pipes, which connect with Tarhunah, could be used as an extension of the Tarhunah facility by storing and clandestinely moving chemical agents and other military equipment or forces. Many of the underground pipes at Tarhunah are more than 12 feet in diameter. Once operational, the Tarhunah chemical weapons facility is expected to produce the ingredients for an estimated 2,500 tons of poison agents each year.
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In the area of developing a nuclear weapons capability or long-range ballistic missiles the Libyans have not been as successful as in chemical and biological weapons, because of the international arms embargo and the lack of adequate financial or indigenous technical resources or expertise. Libya's ballistic missiles reportedly consist of the North Korean Scud-C Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) variant with a 550 km/341 mile range and 500 kg/1,105 lb payload; Scud-B SRBMs with a 300 km range and 985 kg/2,176 lb payload; the Russian-made SS-21 Scarab SRBM with a 70 km/43 mile range and 480 kg/1,060 lb payload, and a program to develop the Al Fatah (Iltisslat) Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) with a 950 km/589 mile range and 500 kg/1,105 lb payload.
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Dr. Joshua Sinai is an international security analyst based in Washington, D.C., specializing in Middle Eastern and African political-security matters, proliferation, and terrorism issues. He previously was a Senior Analyst in the National Security Studies and Strategies Group, SAIC, McLean, Virginia. He holds a Ph.D. in Comparative Politics from Columbia University. His previous assessments of Libya's WMD program have appeared in the Washington Post and Jane's Intelligence Review.
Wow! This could be interesting.
Wow! That is some article from 1999!!!
Do you have a link I can use for a file I'm starting on this matter?
Talk about outsourcing...
Great Post!
This goes back to 1999, and who was president then?
Surely our eyes in the skies would notice a huge power plant out in the desert somewhere.
important bump for later