Obama is very photogenic. Hastert would require the wide lens, if you know what I mean.
I lived in Chicago 8 of the last 12 years I know what I speak of.
Now to answer your question... I was going to say 95% chance of losing, but didn't want to be accused of being a drama queen so I went with a much safer, more conservative number (90%) and I stand by it.
I stand by my previous remarks. DRAMA QUEEN!!!