Posted on 07/09/2004 11:08:48 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has flown to Germany for surgery for a slipped disk. He has transferred power to Prime Minister Atef Obeid during his absence. The surgery will take place on Monday. There are two important points here. First, Mubarak has not transferred power when he left the country in the past -- and surgery for a slipped disk would not cause him to change his behavior. Second, Egypt's better hospitals can certainly handle a slipped disk, or a foreign specialist could be flown in if needed. We do not believe this surgery is about a slipped disk, and we do not believe that the transfer of power to Obeid is a casual move. As we noted last week, it is time to start thinking about post-Mubarak Egypt.
For the moment, however, the focus of public attention in the Middle East is beheadings. With today's videotape of a kidnapped Korean contractor begging for his life, we are in yet another cycle that has, in the past, ended in beheadings. Since this is now an international process, involving Saudi Arabia and Iraq (assuming we exclude Daniel Pearl's execution in Pakistan from this list), we are clearly dealing with a strategy, not an incident.
The question is what the strategy is intended to achieve. Al Qaeda has three audiences: the Islamic world, non-Islamic U.S. allies and the United States. In the United States, as al Qaeda surely knows, the impact of the beheadings will not help accelerate antiwar sentiment. It will reinforce the feeling that al Qaeda must be resisted at all costs, and will tend to work against those who had come to see the United States as the prime mover in the atrocity business.
It is also not working particularly well among U.S. allies. The Spanish reaction to the Madrid bombings is, looking backward, more a fluke than a trend. After some uneasiness in the coalition ranks -- and the defection of some Latin American countries -- the alliance in Iraq steadied and held. Strategic acts equal to or greater than Madrid might have a different effect, but beheadings are not going to break the alliance. And again, we suspect al Qaeda and its allies know this.
That leaves the third audience, the Islamic world. Al Qaeda has learned that intermittent operations tend to undermine its credibility in the Islamic world. During a period of relative quiescence, doubts grow about its continued viability. This hurt al Qaeda badly between the end of the Afghan campaign and the beginning of the Iraq campaign, and was particularly troublesome during January and February 2004. The intermittent actions al Qaeda prefers simply do not maintain the psychological cadence it is looking for.
Al Qaeda lacks large numbers of highly skilled, language-capable operatives able to carry out operations in the United States and Europe. These have to be husbanded carefully. On the other hand, al Qaeda does have a large number of minimally trained operatives in Islamic countries. They cannot go after hardened targets, but they can be very effective against soft targets -- and they are expendable. The question has been how to use these operatives effectively. Suicide bombings and random incidents have ceased to be riveting events. A beheading catches the attention like few other things can.
Beheadings are a demonstration of will and ongoing capability. They are played and replayed in both the regional and global media. Even if it doesn't scare anyone away, a beheading still serves to drive al Qaeda and its goals into the global and regional mind. It is difficult to take beheadings in stride and ignore them. This is not al Qaeda's core strategy -- that continues to be strategic attacks. However, it is a powerful tool for shaping public awareness. Even if it drives non-Muslims -- and many Muslims as well -- away form al Qaeda, it rivets the target audience and gives al Qaeda a single message that it can deliver: They are still very much there.
Thanks for finding the Reuters bit. You know how we FReepers tend to ramble, rave, accuse, deny, speculate, and provide entertaining visuals while waiting for reporters to get in the second word. ;-)
"More Gao'uld treachery!"
Quick, we must get word to Jack and Sam!!!!
Watched it, enjoyed it. Sam gets a promotion to LT. COL.
What's with Teal'c's hair?
I love the General Jack O'Neil theory on meeting alien unknown alien species.
Make a smart remark, if the alien gets angry, then open fire!
bttt
I like the show, too. It's derivative sci-fi like the original Trek was derivative sci-fi, just without quite the humor - but with almost enough. But I just wonder when they're going to get around to the Asgard socialized medicine, episode. The original Trek liked to toss in 'socially conscious' episodes. Haven't seen it with this. But then I certainly haven't seen every episode, either, not even by a tenth.
Of course, B5 was a 'euro' effort, was it not? And it was also an engaging adventure, at least midway into year two.
I thought they would have tabled their discussions until the seats of power surrounding their bureau had cornered their settings.
One word: Saddam
That would sure put a damper on the Olympics now wouldn't it?
He's egotistical to think he would be immune. He'd be treated like the ayatollah returning home. If F'n Kerry, by some strange quirk of fate, were elected, there is no doubt in my mind he would be given a pass. That's not going to happen, I'm sure. But if bin Laden stays in his undisclosed cave, he could pull it off. He's probably already dead. But even as such, look how successful he's been post mortum. All they have to do is continue to keep his death a secret and keep dummying up more videos with sound-alike voice-overs.
I think your post breaks the rules. You mention the bangles you got to post a picture.
With reason. Hope the military doesn't take over, but if Mubarak and his cabinet is leaving the stage as rumored, what's left? I imagine Israel is following events very closely.
Something major could be shaping up between Israel and its neighbors. If need be, Israel can and will kick their asses one more time. Maybe ol' Jimmah Cahtah can go over there and straighten this out, whaddya say Jimmah?
I'm looking forward to The 4400. This season of Stargate is rumored to be the last and they're supposed to be spending it resolving all of the storylines from past seasons. T'ealc really does have a chia pet thing going on there, doesn't he?
I didn't realize he had made it back, but he isn't exactly in control anymore.
There is a fundamentalist groundswell right now in Cairo politics. Similar to the recent change in Turkey.
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