Military vote vital for a Bush victory

Washington Times ^ | 7/09/04 | Ralph Z. Hallow

[kattracks]

President Bush could not have won the Electoral College in 2000 without the military vote, and that vote is shaping up to go his way again on Nov. 2, military analysts and pollsters from both sides say.
     "When we look at the veterans' vote and the military vote, it looks like it's going pretty solidly for the president," Democrat pollster Celinda Lake said.
    Total voter turnout -- civilian, current and retired military -- was 105 million in 2000. Last year, the Defense Department reported that 1.4 million men and women were on active duty and an additional 882,000 were in the reserves. But experts define the military vote as far larger than that.
    "Among the electorate, 30 percent of households have at least one member on active duty or a veteran," Republican pollster Ed Goeas said. "These households tend to vote Republican by a six-point margin over Democrats."
    If the election were held tomorrow, those active-duty, reserve and veteran votes would go to Mr. Bush by a margin of 52 percent to 44 percent, according to the June 20 to 23 bipartisan Battleground Poll of likely voters that Ms. Lake conducted with Mr. Goeas.
    The poll confirms that, so far, Sen. John Kerry's status as decorated Vietnam War veteran has given him no boost in this military vote, both pollsters agree.
    They also agree that large populations of military voters and their families are not scattered evenly across the country, but are concentrated in a number of states. And many of those states -- most notably Florida -- are considered battlegrounds in the war to win the Electoral College, where presidents are chosen.
    "Perhaps the best way to understand the importance of the military vote is to look at the outcome of 2000 in Florida," said Loren Thompson, chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, a think tank focusing on national defense issues.
    "If Eglin [Air Force Base] were in Alabama instead of Florida, Al Gore would be in the White House," he said. "The margin was that close, and the military vote went heavily Republican."
    Because television networks have promised not to declare a winner before the polls close as they did in 2000 in Florida and other states, the military vote is expected to be even more important. This is expected to be especially true in Florida, where a contentious recount, including absentee military ballots, and a Supreme Court decision finally tipped the Electoral College in Mr. Bush's favor.
    The Republican's victory margin in Florida was 537 votes, which gave the president the state's 25 electoral votes, for a 271 vote total in the Electoral College -- one more vote than the 270 needed to win.
    All sides agree that the military vote, including absentee ballots from active-duty warriors abroad, made the difference -- even though Democrats succeeded in having thousands of those ballots declared invalid because the military had failed to postmark the envelopes containing the ballots.
    Duval County has the greatest concentration of military families of Florida's 67 counties. In Duval alone, 618 ballots came from overseas absentee voters in 2000.
    Of the 469 overseas ballots declared valid, more than twice as many went to Mr. Bush than went to Al Gore. No record was made, however, of how many of the overseas absentee total were military ballots.
    But experts say that since the advent of the all-volunteer armed services 31 years ago, recent veterans -- such as current active-duty members -- tend to be more conservative than those from the military draft era.
    "If you are military now, you are more likely to be Republican and conservative than your civilian counterpart," said Peter D. Feaver, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies at Duke University. "If you are black and in the military, you are also more likely to be conservative and Republican than blacks not in the military."
    Nine out of every 10 black votes overall went to Al Gore in 2000. Mr. Bush won 54 percent of the overall white vote. No national figures are available for what the total military votes were or how many went to each candidate.
    Democrats predict that more of the military than usual will go their way this November because extended-duty tours and continuing causalities have antagonized a growing number of families of those serving in Iraq and have driven some to Mr. Kerry.
    "Usually active-duty military follows the commander in chief, but in this election, I think their families are going to vote for John Kerry," said Scott Maddox, Florida Democratic party chairman.
    Ms. Lake says "there is evidence" that Democrats are doing better with the spouses of active-duty military people. But experts say predictions about the families of those on active duty are based on anecdotes, not polling.
    Even so, Mr. Thompson says in "an electorate almost evenly split on many key issues, the military vote can be critical to carrying at least 10 states. There are only four states in the entire nation that don't have military bases."
    The military vote may help Mr. Bush even in a nonbattleground states such as California, where there is a large concentration of military, including between 60,000 and 75,000 on active duty.
    The state went for Al Gore in 2000, but that was before the September 11 terror attacks on New York and Washington, the surprise election of movie idol Arnold Schwarzenegger as the first Republican governor of California since Pete Wilson's re-election in 1995, and Mr. Bush's becoming a wartime president.
     Mr. Goeas said the Democratic presidential candidate's normal 12 percentage-point edge in California "seems to be diminishing." One explanation might be the state's heavy military vote. Hispanics, who are disproportionately represented in that vote, now show signs of moving toward Mr. Bush, he said.
    He said New Jersey also bears watching. It usually votes for the Democrat, but has several large military bases and an unpopular Democratic governor.
    Yet another possible surprise in the making: Hawaii, which voted Democratic in the past three presidential elections, but has a tendency to vote for the incumbent. That coupled with its high concentration of military-related families makes it "winnable" for the president, Mr. Goeas says.
    

[Arrowhead1952]

Canteen ping!

[Dales]

January 2003 she had a 71-14 approve/disapprove rating.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

If you are a servicemember stationed in CONUS or overseas, you can register to vote absentee.

The UOCAVA (Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act)
requires that the states and territories allow certain U.S. citizens, as defined below,
to register and vote absentee in elections for Federal office.
These groups include:

Members of the Uniformed Services (including Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Coast Guard)

Merchant Marines

Eligible family members of the above

Commissioned Corps of the Public Health Service,
and Commissioned Corps of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

U.S. citizens employed by the Federal Government residing outside the U.S.,
and All other private U.S. citizens residing outside the U.S.

If you are eligible to register under UOCAVA, CLICK HERE and follow the instructions.

For state-by-state voting deadlines and calendar CLICK HERE

General Election Date: Tuesday, November 2, 2004

IMPORTANT DATA
Military Voting for 2004
YOUR VOTE will count!

Military Voter Registration Info

Just Click on a flag to Visit that Branch of Service Voting Info

Army	Navy	Air Force	Marines	Coast Guard

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

If you recall the media tried to give FL to Gore in 2000
VNS was a private consortium owned by
ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC.
All 5 of the networks and cable newsrooms "announced" Gore had won
BEFORE the 2nd time zone in FL had closed.
This cost President Bush votes in the FL panhandle.
I was at a friends house and the State of FL election website results showed President Bush was winning
WHILE the big 5 media TV and Cable newsrooms "announced their" winner.
The big 5 media TV and Cable newsrooms are the real threat to the 2004 election.

..."Early on Tuesday, November 7th 2000, TV stations and various media based in Florida reported that Gore has won Florida which was a big surprise for everyone because of strong republican support. Bush's brother Jeb is governor there and Florida usually gives support to the Republicans. Some of them questioned that and during the night CNN showed 52% Bush's lead over 46% for Gore. It is almost impossible to believe that media could have been that blind and biased to report Gore's victory."...

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Originally posted by MoJo2001 and The Sailor

*IMPORTANT MILITARY VOTE INFORMATION*

 

Having gone through the process of ensuring that The Sailor can vote, I found out that there is another easy way to ensure that our military can receive their ballots. If you are stressing out trying to figure out how to get an application, you can click on the Sample to find out how to do it.

You will need to open up the ballot with Adobe Acrobat Reader. If you don't know how to open up .pdf files, don't worry. You can easily visit their site to get a free installation of Adobe's Acrobat reader.


Click the above link to get Adobe Reader


We must all work together to ensure that our Troops have the right to vote. This is the least we can do for them. If you know anyone overseas or stationed away from their "home of records", please send them this link. It is important.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Originally posted by MoJo2001 and The Sailor

*IMPORTANT MILITARY VOTE INFORMATION*

 

Having gone through the process of ensuring that The Sailor can vote, I found out that there is another easy way to ensure that our military can receive their ballots. If you are stressing out trying to figure out how to get an application, you can click on the Sample to find out how to do it.

You will need to open up the ballot with Adobe Acrobat Reader. If you don't know how to open up .pdf files, don't worry. You can easily visit their site to get a free installation of Adobe's Acrobat reader.


Click the above link to get Adobe Reader


We must all work together to ensure that our Troops have the right to vote. This is the least we can do for them. If you know anyone overseas or stationed away from their "home of records", please send them this link. It is important.

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!

[stand watie]

!!!!!!!!!!

free dixie,sw

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Please make sure Frank gets this info!

[Fracas]

Bump again.

[JockoManning]

thanks for all the pings.

[jpl]

"If Eglin [Air Force Base] were in Alabama instead of Florida, Al Gore would be in the White House," he said.

And if the media hadn't incorrectly called the state while people in the panhandle were still voting, Bush would have won by thousands of votes instead of hundreds.

[stand watie]

already DONE!

S requested his absentee materials over 45 days ago. (here in the commonwealth,a spouse can do that for a servicemember! can't tell you whether that is OK elsewhere. SSSHHHHHH, F is a member of the county GOP exec. committtee, too.)

free dixie,sw

[Soaring Feather]

Military Vote bump

[Soaring Feather]

bump

[E.G.C.]

BTT!!!!!!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"First time I've seen Hawaii publicly mentioned as possibly being a Bush state."

---

Well, maybe it's the first time you heard it from the media, but I've been saying it for a couple of years now. : )

I don't know how Gov. Lingle is doing, although you should know that he isn't exactly a conservative, so I don't know how much she can help Bush. But Hawaii has traditionally been very loyal to the Commander-in-Chief (except in 1992, when Perot got a lot of military votes), and with the War on Terror placing national security back in the forefront, I think Bush will be at least competitive in the state. And if Bush carries FL, PA and OH fairly early in the evening, it will be obvious that Kerry will lose and it will dampen Democrat enthusiasm in Hawaii (where polls close many hours after they do out East).

I can't wait to see a poll in Hawaii (and in Delaware too, for that matter).

[Coop]

January 2003 she had a 71-14 approve/disapprove rating.

Not bad. :-) But still in her honeymoon period. Wonder what it is now?

[Coop]

Well, maybe it's the first time you heard it from the media, but I've been saying it for a couple of years now. : )

That's why I said "publicly." :-) Hey, I've never ruled out Hawaii as being in play based on Lingle and a strong military presence, but up until now hadn't seen anything to support it.

[Tamzee]

Bump to the military vote!

Anyone who has been serving their country should have their vote stamped in gold and counted FIRST...