Electoral College Breakdown 2004, July 7th Update

ECB2004 ^ | 7/7/04

[dixiechick2000]

I surely do hope you are right. I am optimistic.

Just a little anecdotal evidence...
I live in Washington county, which is a rather
conservative county. In 2000, it was surprising
to find out it went for Gore. I do remember seeing
a lot of Gore signs, bumperstickers, etc. but, in the
end, Gore didn't get many more votes than Bush. This
year, I see very little campaign material for Kerry.
I think I've seen 2 bumperstickers, and no signs. This
is why I am optimistic. BTW, Washington county is part
of the Portland Metro area.

I wrote this in a hurry. I hope it makes sense. ;o)

[Coop]

Good to hear. I hope you're hosting a part for Dubya next week, to make sure like-minded folks in Oregon are mobilized this time around. I'll ping you to a thread with details.

[HanneyBean]

As a tarheel, I can tell you that NC will go for Bush regardless of Senator Breck girl.
He wouldn't even have kept his senate seat had he elected to run for it again.
Trust me on this, NC is not leaning and will not lean for Kerry.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Checked today, and FL already back in Kerry's camp after Rassmussen's poll. Have a feeling after this election the reputation of certain polling outfits will be damaged beyond repair. Will Rassmussen be one of them? He's already got a huge strike against him from 2000.

Is FL really polling this way or are pollsters modeling their turnout numbers based on 2000? Was 2000 really a representative year for FL as a whole, or is a state as heavily GOP is, statewide, really that tight nationally? Will a state that loves the brother of the President really toss out the President when he is cut from the same cloth? Stay tuned, alot of these questions to be answered on Nov 2...

[MHT]

Where did they get the 60,000+ people for the rally today? I didn't think he could muster 60,000 votes in North Carolina muchless 60,000 souls to a rally! Did these folks come in from South Carolina?

[HowardLSmith.ô¿ô]

I have been following your work with great admiration and tremendous thanks!!! Reading your analysis has kept me from going stir-crazy since I live in Kerry country!!!

I have been watching New Hampshire with interest and I have done a little volunteer work there for Bush since I am afraid that NH will actually be the Florida of 2004.

It looks to me that the last couple of polls in Maine and New Hampshire are showing some real improvement for Bush. Is there something that you can particularly point to that can give us some guidance for these two states...?

Thanks again and yes I have donated to your kitty - I hope that others are helping out!!!

[Dales]

Thanks for the kind words. And the tip! :-)

What sort of guidance are you looking for?

[Nataku X]

The story of this election is not Iraq or the economy; it is the unprecedented and blatant attempt of the media (and "entertainment" industry) to determine the outcome of a national election.

Exactly! Everyone I have talked to says that they have never seen such overwhelming hatred and anger. It's not like Bush is all that conservative, either. What's up with that??

Dales, I visited the 1996 RNC convention arena and it was quite gloomy because no one believed that Dole would win. Nothing at all compared to 2000... in 2000 (and 2004) people LOVED Bush for Bush... the enthusiasm was nothing at all like what I saw at the 1996 convention.

Point being, people don't love Kerry. They HATE Bush. For that reason I don't think Kerry will get much of a bounce since the hatred and anger this year are overwhelming.

OTOH, if Kerry somehow can change his image and make people love him a la Nixon's Checkers speech or pull off a Tipperesque kiss, look for the biggest bounce in history--unfortunately. But for now it looks like he's sticking with the negative & anger tone since it keeps his voters motivated.

[HowardLSmith.ô¿ô]

We are just trying to find our way to potential Bush Voters in NH and ME, and we are working on a shoestring here so if you can see anything in the poll results that will help us please let us know. We are trying to find location of potential voters and if you see any hot button issues that could help too!

If you have anything really hot!! please send a private reply...

Thanks again for your work on the EC Breakdown, it is truly great!!!!

[COURAGE]

If the election was today, which will be unconstitutional, I say Kerry 287 Bush 251.

We are in deep do-do.

Terrorists win.