[ER_in_OC,CA]

Interesting, though some screw-ups with state designations are distracting. He uses 'VI' once, and I can only assume he means VA.

Later, he uses 'AK' for a battleground state, when he surely means AR since AK is a Republican lock like HI is for the Dems.

I appreciate the positive tone, but there was a recent MI statewide poll showing JFK up 10, only to be followed by a recent poll showing GWB up 1. Both MI and PA polls are in flux and losing both states AGAIN is a possibility.

Furthermore, the jury on NC is out vis-a-vis Edwards. I hope he's right.

[Graybeard58]

Furthermore, the jury on NC is out vis-a-vis Edwards. I hope he's right.

The Pres will take both North and South Carolina.

[Dan from Michigan]

There's only a slim chance that John Kerry will be up 10 here in MI on election day. Only STRONG incumbents or races where the party abandons a candidate will that happen. Challengers of incumbents have never won by that much at least since 90. Klinton was closest with 8%, and Kerry isn't close with Charisma. Northeastern dems do bad here too. Midwest(Humphrey) and Southern dems(Klinton/Gore - likely Carter if Ford wasn't a homer) do well here and sell better to labor.

My money says this will be within 5% either way, and I'll even say that a 17000 or 5000 vote spread would not suprise me here. Recent Statewide races.

2002
Gov - Granholm(D) 51%, Posthumus(R) 47%
AG - Cox(R) 49% Peters(D) 49% (5000 vote difference)
Sec of State - Land(R) 55%, Hollowell(D) 43% (Dems abandoned it and Land ran a great campaign)
Senate - Lenin(D) 61%, Rocky(R) 38% - Rocky was abandoned.

2000
President - Gore 51%, Bush 46%
Senate - Stamenow(D) 49%, Abraham(R) 48% - Abraham did not run a good campaign and his immigration stance hurt him bad with labor.

1998 (A disaster year up and down the ticket for dems)
Gov - Engler(R) 62%, Fieger(D) 38% - Fieger even lost Ann Arbor. Nuff said.
Sec of State - Miller(R) 68%, Parks(D) 30% - Miller is credited with modernizing the Sec of State office and cutting lines there. Fieger at the top helped too.
AG - Granholm(D) 52%, Smietenka(R) 48% - Infighting killed us here, and the dems smelling defeat in the other two races put their money here. 1996 Klinton 51%, Dole 38%, Perot 9%
Lenin(D) won big here too with 58%

1994
Engler(R) 61% over Wolpe.
Senate - Abraham 52% over Bob Carr(D)
Miller(R) wins over an incumbent Austin(D) for Sec of State. Don't have results offhand.
AG - Dem Frank Kelley(D) won big. He's the most popular dem in the last 50 years in Michigan. 1992
Klinton 44%, Bush 36%, Perot 19% 1990 John Engler(R) 50.5%, Jim Blanchard(D) 49.5% - 17000 votes.