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To: Owen

Right now, Bush is leading in Rassmussen's Big 3 - Leadership, Economy, Iraq. Still, I won't take much stock in Rassmussen until he proves himself in this election. It doesn't make sense for Bush to lead in all these categories, have a high approval rating, but be neck-n-neck with Kerry every single day since he started these polls.


7 posted on 07/06/2004 5:49:11 PM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation (Fahrenheit 9/11: the 2004 edition of the Wellstone Funeral Rally!)
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To: All

Rasmussen asks nothing about F911. That is not the point. The point is he samples a 3 day moving average and there has now been plenty of time for that film to show impact on opinions. It doesn't. Bush moved up 1% (well within MOE so meaningless).

Remember, always, no pollsters know what turnout model to use so none of their values are meaningful statically, but if they hold there sampling formula constant, then the trends they show *are* meaningful, and that's what we have here. No change since F911.


8 posted on 07/06/2004 6:34:37 PM PDT by Owen
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