Actually, 38 percent for Bush among Hispanics is not bad.
I believe Reagan did roughly that well in 1984.
Any number much higher than that would have been unrealistic. In other words, whatever Hispanic support Bush has lost is support that he would have lost anyway.
If Bush gets 38% of the Hispanic vote, Bush wins. 38 percent would be a major improvement from Dole in '96 and even better than Reagan.