Actually, I depend on our own "Dr Deb". She usually has the best information and can disect the inside polls as well as the "who would you vote for".
However, with a Bush approval rating of 51%, I think it's waaaaay too early to make any predictions about Kerry winning.
Lots of ppl disect the polls, but that doesn't change the fact that Rasmussen blew it big time in 2000.... So as Nov draws nigh we'll see how others project the outcome...