No, but it puts it into play, while taking Florida off the table. It's actually Gore's original "Plan B" that McRatlife & Lehane decided by August 2000 was a losing proposition -- attack the Rust Belt/Farm Subsidy crescent (PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, MO -- they already owned IL), organize the cemetary turn-out through the unions.
It's strictly a Last-Century losing strategy (it's all Mondale had going in '84), yet Lurch is stupid enough to rip a page from Gore's playbook that even Gore wouldn't put on the field.
Bush won MO conclusively in 2000:
Bush-Gore-Nader
1,189,924-1,111,138-38,515
50%-47%-2%
(Show-Me staters: Help make sure Ralph has no trouble getting on the MO ballot.)
I'm in agreement with you that Gephardt will not deliver Missouri for Kerry. Gephardt has never held state-wide office or for that matter, he's never even run for state-wide office. Voters in the Ozarks or corn belt could care less that he's from this state.
I will concede that his union backing could help him in a state like Ohio which seems to be up for grabs right now.