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THE BATTLEGROUND 2004 POLL
1,000 Registered "likely" voters
June 20-23, 2004

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCH-UPS
GWB 43% Kerry 41% Nader 1%
GWB 48% Kerry 48%
[unchanged statistically from March]

JOB APPROVAL
51% approve 48% disapprove

APPROVE AS A PERSON
63% approve (46% strongly) 29% disapprove
[In the last 3 years of his presidency, Bill Clinton couldn't break 30% on this measure!!]

SUMMARY COMMENTS FROM ED GOEAS (Republican pollster):

The "Big Three" Predictors of the Presidential Race:

1.) Presidential Job Approval -- in modern presidential politics every incumbent president who had a job arrpoval rating of 50% or better at this point of the campaign went on to win reelection in November
31% approve Jimmy Carter
53% approve Ronald Reagan
38% approve Bush 41
52% approve Clinton
51% approve GWB
[NOTE: voters NOT holding an opinion on presidential job approval has dropped from 11% for Carter, to 10% for Reagan, to 7% for GHWBush, to 6% for Clinton, to 1% for GWB -- this explains the slightly higher disapproval ratings that GWB receives vs his predecessors!]

2.) Which presidential candidate "would do a better job keeping America prosperous"

The results of this measurement went from a 7-point deficit last March (Kerry 49% GWB 42%) to a 1-point lead for GWB (GWB 47% Kerry 46%) -- one of the largest shifts in the overall data! [Democrats have never taken the White House unless they had a lead of 7-points or better on this measurement!]

3.) Unaided Ballot

As opposed to the prior two measurements which appear to be favoring President Bush's reelection, this measurement has gotten slightly tighter over the last several months and appears to reflect not only the close division of the American electorate, but the higher than ususal intensity of voters in tis election.
GWB 43.1% Kerry 41.3% (March: GWB 42.9% KErry 39.4%)

WAR ON TERRORISM / WAR IN IRAQ

Who would do a better job "safeguarding America from a terrorist threat"?
GWB 55% Kerry 36% (+19)

Who would do a better job handling the war in Iraq?
GWB 51% Kerry 42% (+9)

CHARACTER

GWB 48% Kerry 44% represents my values (+4)
GWB 45% Kerry 42% honest and trustworthy (+3)
GWB 57% Kerry 34% says what he believes (+23)
GWB 54% Kerry 38% strong leader (+16)
GWB 41% Kerry 46% cares about people like you (-5) (traditionally, Democrats boast a double-digit lead relative to this question)

CONCLUSION (from Ed Goeas)
"Of the four scenarios for the November election -- Bush wins big, Kerry wins big, Bush wins by a narrow margin, Kerry wins by a narrow margin -- the one scenario that appears to be unlikely is Kerry wins big (it is hard to imagine this campaign finishing with bad news on both the economy and security issue matrix). While President Bush may not receive enough consistently good news on both the security and economic fronts to get traction with the voters before the Fall, given a draw on these two issues matrixes, voters may very well move to how they feel about the character of these two men in deciding how to cast their vote!!!!"

http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/9786Q.pdf

http://www.tarrance.com/battleground/GOPanalysis.pdf

All of this good news and the Democrats in this poll exceed Republicans by 6 points!

TYPICAL VOTING BEHAVIOR OF RESPONDENTS:

Repubicans 44%
(Straight Republican ticket, mostly Republican, a few more Republican than Democrat)

Democrat 50%
(Straight Democrat ticket, mostly Democrat, a few more Democrat than Republican)