Posted on 06/28/2004 2:03:37 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
In this case, the last price for New Mexico is 50.0 today.
The bid price is 48.5 and the ask price is 51.0. These average to 49.75.
Thus, the tie goes to John Kerry.
If you have a ping list would you please add me? Thank you.
Given that Bush has things looking this positive at this point, given all of the nonsense that has been launched at him, if things go reasonably well for him, I can forsee a landslide of marginal propotions - it certainly won't be Reaganesque - but it will give him the voter mandate he needs to be much more aggressive in pursuing a conservative agenda.
Which state did he lose from last week?
New mex should go to bush at 50%. Also or and Pa at 44/45 are definately in play.
Added.
on please
Sorry, I don't follow the question.
Next time I hear a lefty rant about aboloshing the electoral college, I'm going to suggest we just count states.
The EC, and the bicameral legislature was the compromise for the large v small state tension. Lefties are suggesting we go to the large state preferred option. Lets suggest we go to the small state preferred option.
ping
All set.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
I know!! I've also seen the headlines "Bush With Slight Lead" and "Kerry And Bush in Toss-Up" when Bush is ahead by 6%...the media bias is no longer hidden. They are blatant about it now and it will only get worse.
See post #5.
Last week he had more points.. which points did he lose?
Thanks jdege!
Looking at the 'swing' as defined by within 10% by this poll/odds, Bush has 34 electoral votes 'at risk' to Kerry's 50 votes at risk. Defining the swing as 7% leaves Bush with 9 at risk and Kerry with 33 at risk.
New Mexico.
Ah, sorry, you're asking the wrong guy. This is the first time I've had a look at these numbers. I was just giving my two cents as to where I disagree. I think some states are closer than portrayed by this market. I don't know where the numbers stood last week. Maybe the thread starter can help you out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.