Posted on 06/28/2004 2:03:37 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
New Mexico, 5 Electoral Votes.
Maine splits EV's
Opinions of TradeSports.Com:
61.0 for a Bush Florida is a good deal.
59.0 for a Bush Ohio is a good deal.
46.0 for Kerry in New Hampshire is an excellent deal, I think he'll carry NH.
Michigan (36) and Minnesota (32) are outrageous bargains for Bush. They are two that I would jump on right now if I was into this sort of thing.
If the cards start falling Bush's way with Iraq and the economy, which it looks like is going to happen.. Bush is going to win by 6-7 points in November, and those two states above will be a big payday come November.
For an instant pop, if you think Kerry is going to pick Edwards for VP.. I can see North Carolina dropping down to 55-60 for Bush.. Most of the polls I've seen with an Edwards ticket puts a BUsh lead at 1-2.
Just a few ideas if anyone is interested in making a buck off this.
Thank you for pointing this out. People take potshots at Bush, and yet when one considers the nearly impossible obstacles he's faced from Day One through this entire 3-1/2 years, he's done a remarkable job. Give him an electoral mandate, plus an increased Republican Senate and House, he can start kicking the Dems to the side of the road.
What are you a professor of? Asinine mindless posts?
Trump your taag line
Right now as it stands, they have the 2000 map duplicating itself in entirety. A possible outcome but IMO not likely. Things change, the maps always vary every election.
Also, the Reagan bounce, which most polls caught, has not made itself apparent on TradeSports...Bush continued to slide albeit at a small pace over the last month.
I'm from Michigan and, as far as I can tell, if they could just stop the voter fraud in Detroit, the state would go to Bush. Unfortunately, the unions and high minority population in Detroit make for a slim chance of an honest election in that part of the state.
I realize these guys are more bookies than prognosticators, but Oklahoma and Nebraska a point higher than Texas in probability? I don't see it, all W's got to do is come home and get some rest in Crawford once in a while, Texas is in the pocket. Virginia sounds a little high, but Bush will carry there.
Right now, I see Pennsylvania and Ohio as the win/lose states. We really, really need Pennsylvania.
A couple of interesting things. According to the rules, NM goes to Kerry even though AFIAK there have been no actual trades on the Kerry side (it's been on Bush's side for 3 months, and gone from there to 50/50). I've got no idea why it started for Bush nor why it's been moving to Kerry.
Another interesting thing is that the movement has been towards Kerry on this site, while other indicators, including the other trading site (the Iowa exchange) have been showing movements in Bush's direction.
Finally, as has been pointed out, after much maneuvering of states, we're exactly back to 2000.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.