ELECTION DAY 2004
Paul Martin spent the final days of his shabby campaign attempting to argue that a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives, a vote for the Bloc is a vote for the Conservatives, a vote for the Greens is a vote for the Conservatives…
Almost right, Prime Minister. In a nutshell, a vote for anybody but the Liberals is a vote for anybody but the Liberals.
And that’s what matters. Today’s election needs to be an act of political hygiene – a repudiation of the waste and cronyism of the one-party state. If Canadians chicken out, we’ll be colluding in the degradation of our democracy. I agree with Jack Layton on this: make a positive vote. If you’re a socialist, vote socialist. If you’re a separatist, vote separatist. As for the hollow man's hollow threats, the Martin argument is particularly loathsome this time round: thanks to our election laws, the votes your party receives today will determine the public money they get at the next election. I dislike the idea of state-funded parties, but, given that those are the rules, there’s no reason to give the Grits yet another institutional advantage. If you’re an NDPer and you cast a tactical vote for the Liberals, you’re ensuring they’ll have even more dough to squash your guys next time round. And next time could come pretty soon.
And, indeed, one of the advantages of the present situation is that there’s no such thing as a wasted vote. If we really are in minority government territory, then every party, every riding, every member counts. Likewise, every vote the Liberals don’t get is a lesson to them. In that respect, I’d urge conservatives in my province of Quebec not to get stampeded into stringing along with the stale notion that the Grits are the only viable “federalist” party. The Bloc will have a good night, and they deserve it – M Duceppe has fought an effective campaign – but if you’re a conservative, whether in the Liberal enclaves of Montreal or the Bloquiste heartland, cast a vote for Harper’s guy and do your bit to establish the party as a credible federalist alternative.
The Liberals’ other line has been the one I predicted a few months back, the one borrowed from the 2002 French Presidential election: Vote for the crooks, not the Fascists. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are not exactly right-wing red meat for the likes of me, but that’s okay – you can’t shift the assumptions of decades overnight, or even within one term. So vote for the Fascists, or the Commies, or the Traitors, or even the Eco-loonies. But not the Crooks.
I’m hoping for a Conservative majority on Tuesday morning, but, if that’s not possible, the temporary chaos of a splintered House of Commons is better than the remorseless decay of continued Liberal rule. I’ll be up late tonight filing a late election column for The Western Standard and we’ll be giving away tons of prizes to lucky competition winners tomorrow morning. Even if Canada's the loser, you could be a big winner.
PS You want predictions? Okay...
LIB
CON
NDP
BQ
IND
NF
4 LIB
3 CON
PE
3 LIB
1 CON
NS
3 CON
6 LIB
2 NDP
NB
4 CON
5 LIB
1 NDP
PQ
22 LIB
53 BQ
ON
62 LIB
38 CON
6 NDP
MB
3 LIB
7 CON
4 NDP
SK
2 NDP
11 CON
1 LIB
AL
28 CON
BC
3 NDP
31 CON
1 LIB
1 IND
NV
1 LIB
NW
1 LIB
YT
1 LIB
At the end of the night:
Conservatives 131
Liberals 108
Bloc 53
NDP 15
Independent 1
...and her vice-regal eminence gets her moment in the spotlight.
I would love the BC numbers if true. Meaning, if the other predictions happen and the Ontario numbers shift, well, you know what will happen...
About 40 minutes until the Newfies chime in.