Posted on 06/28/2004 2:51:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
The Canadian election is today. If the most recent polls are correct, the Conservative Party of Canada may win more seats in Canada's House of Commons, setting the stage for a Conservative minority government. A new day may be dawning in Canada. But the election is going to be close.
Please use this thread for any early election articles that pop-up over the course of the day, predictions and news analysis, and, of course, the actual results as they come in.
Also, please post links to Canadian elections result sites here.
I was wondering who draws the area a riding encompasses? Is it as badly gerrymandered as districts in the US?
I would love the BC numbers if true. Meaning, if the other predictions happen and the Ontario numbers shift, well, you know what will happen...
About 40 minutes until the Newfies chime in.
I thought the law in Canada is there is no reporting of results until all the polls close throughtout Canada.
Gerrymandering hasn't been a problem in Canada since redistricting is carried out by regional independent commissions operating under the auspices of Elections Canada. The public gets a say in how ridings are drawn. House Of Commons seats are redrawn once decade and the House adds a couple of more seats due to population growth. However, no province can be left with fewer seats than they had under the British North America Act. So that's why no party can have a real lock on permanent power, unlike in the U.S gerrymandered system. It helps to hold Canada's political parties responsive to the voters.
Thanks for the info. I think one of the advantages of Canada's system combined with a relatively small population is the districts contain only a small population so from what I heard candidates can be very effective in door to door campaigning. Congressional districts have gotten too big in the US.
Is the Commission drawing the districts well regarded by all the parties? From what you say its not full of Grits trying to keep the Libs in power.
Apparently, the law was changed so that, for the first time, there are no media blackouts. Elections.ca [official site for the Canadian government] will not report until after 10 pm when the last polls close but the media may report the results as they come in.
Yes, all the parties send observers to the commissions and MPs can have their input on where the lines should be drawn but in the end there not drawn to maximize partisan advantage. As you can see from today's election, it means a change of power in Canada IS possible. There was a time before the 1960s, when Parliament drew the riding lines but it was open to charges of gerrymandering and favoring the party in power that it was abandoned for the present system. Interestingly enough, it gives small parties a chance under the country's plurality past the post system to win some seats. Gerrymandering of course wouldn't even be a remote threat if the country adopted some form of PR and that may happen before the next election. Anything to vanquish the prospect of permanent Grit hegemony would be welcome.
The polls as well indicated a dead heat so the winner tonight is going to be determined by which side turns out its base more.
The early results from the Atlantic provinces will tell us if its going to be a long night for the Liberals.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040628.elmain/BNStory/specialDecision2004/
Nation watches Newfoundland's choice
Globe and Mail Update
The polls have closed in Newfoundland and Labrador as the rest of the nation watches for the outcome of an election expected to be the closest in decades.
With seven of 308 seats, the province will provide a first glimpse of the battle to form the next government. Indications are pointing to a minority, but Monday will determine what stripe, Liberal or Conservative.
At 7:30 p.m. EDT, the rest of the Atlantic provinces start reporting their results. The region, which went largely Liberal in 2000, has a total of 32 seats up for grabs.
Some two hours after that, at 9:30 p.m., five provinces and two territories with the weight of 239 seats will start reporting results. Key battlegrounds include Ontario, with one-third of the nation's seat and Quebec.
At 10 p.m., polls in British Columbia, providing what some has seen as a photo finish for a closely fought election.
The numbers are being shown live to all Canadians after Elections Canada lifted a ban that prevented voters from knowing results from other regions. B.C. voters, for example, will see Atlantic Canada's results for three hours and will have half an hour to see the rest of the country.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals entered the campaign with 19 MPs, the Conservatives had eight and the NDP, four.
At the end of the 36-day campaign, Paul Martin's Liberals and Stephen Harper's Conservatives were neck and neck in poll numbers. Both parties were not expected to gather enough seats to form a minority.
Ontario, which single handedly handed power to the Liberals, will be a key battleground as the Tories eyeing the suburbs, and the NDP are looking for a major breakthrough in cities and labour-friendly communities.
The Bloc is looking for a rout in Quebec, aiming to sweep the Liberals out and giving its leader Gilles Duceppe a possible role as kingmaker in a minority.
In the Prairies, the Tory stronghold in Alberta is seen holding firm, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba are witnesses to battles between the three main parties.
CTV Live Stream:
http://www.insinc.com/ctvnewsnet/election_live.php
The Liberals are expected to do well in Newfoundland, right? My understanding was they were in good shape in at least four of the province's seven ridings.
The Atlantic provinces have traditionally gone Liberal so if they don't pick up the predicted seats they should, we're probably looking at majority party territory for the Conservatives.
O.K. Folks, Here we go.....Pray for us conservatives up here.
Please.
Thank you.
Newfoundland is very Liberal, with very high unemployment.
5-2 would be status quo. 4-3 would be a pickup of 1.
Correction --- 5-2 Liberal is generally expected. It matches the 2000 election. 4-3 would be status quo, due to a by-election.
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