Posted on 06/23/2004 5:22:33 PM PDT by Dales
If Kerry wins all the states that lean to him and wins all the toss up states that went to gore in 2000 and if bush does the same, you get Kerry 269, and Bush 269.
Guess those steel tariffs didn't really help out in WV. With PA, its hard to tell. If Bush wins and doesn't get WV, they'll end up the loser.
Bush in a landslide. The house votes by state. The CA house delegation gets 1 vote as does the Utah delegation. However, the house could be pressured to vote for the popular vote winner.
Yes that is what I meant, I'm typing faster than I'm thinking. As with Zogby, I know the polls are junk but the trend is indeed interesting. For some reason or another, he has caught a sizeable Bush shift and not just in those states. For a junk poll, I wonder why.
index
This is one HELLUVA breakdown !!!! Incredible work , and I'll be reading this over and over for a few weeks !! (just to comprehend it all !) Thanks !
I heard Hugh Hewitt mention you on his talk radio show one day last week. Do you get him in your area?
If a clock is set at 2 pm when it
is actually 4 pm, but it is moving
forward in time, you get valuable
info by checking it. You can tell
when each hour goes by, & if you
know how it was wrongly set, you
can know the real time.
Zogby interactive is like a clock
wrongly set, that shows movement
& even valid results if you could
adjust for its flawed methods.
:o)
I've recently had an email exchange with him over some Free Republic matters. That's probably how he became aware of my site.
I just wish he could see that it is Dales' (the possessive form of the nickname Dales) and not Dale's (the possessive form of the name Dale). :-)
I absolutely love his blog, and the blogs of the rest of the Northern Alliance.
"Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are."
As it stand right now, Cooksey and Fletcher have both bowed out of the race for Alexander's seat. I'm not sure who the Republicans are running now. This week it was announced a railroad car manufacturing plant would open in the district, bringing about 850 jobs, and I'm sure Alexander will be taking credit for that. He's looking a lot tougher to beat right now than he was a few weeks ago.
It could even avoid going to the House if the EV appeared to be 269-269. Some electors might decide that they should vote for the candidate with the national popular vote lead. We might not know until Congress opened the EV ballots in January what the totals were.
Unless there's been some polling I haven't seen, there won't be any party changes in Wisconsin's House delegation. While it is true that Kind was re-elected with the lowest percentage of the delegation, 62.8% in 2002 still makes his a safe seat. His district is also likely to remain RAT infested after he retires as well, as the "Mississippi River effect" is enhanced by a pair of college towns in La Crosse and Eau Claire.
On a related note, while Jerry Kleczka is retiring, and the Pubbies are putting up a token candidate (actually a pair) this time (they didn't bother in 2002), I still expect the RAT candidate to get better than 70% of the vote based simply on demographics (the city of Milwaukee and a few "choice" union suburbs).
Do you maintain a ping list for these nice summaries? If so, please add me.....
NH has never liked Bushes.
IIRC, his opponent this time (state sen. Dale Schultz) has been called his strongest opposition ever -- of course it's still uphill. That district is a major focus of BC-04 and WI-GOP advertising/turnout.
Jerry Kleczka is retiring, and the Pubbies are putting up a token candidate
Corey Hoze is a good candidate who's getting a lot of support for his bid, statewide and nationally. Of course he's a longshot because of the makeup of the district, but he is quality.
I always look forward to your analysis and the clarity of the tables... thank you!
Dales, that would be me!
I still think I'm right, since the EV's are officially opened & counted in Congress (Joint Session) in January. The election cannot be thrown into the House until then.
By that time the new membership will be seated.
To me there's only one that counts, Tradesports.
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