I think I agree with you. I went to Ipsos-Reid web site and copied the numbers they got for their poll, and the point swings they had were incredible. I mean things don't change that fast in politics unless something major happens. Here is the numbers they got from their poll:
"In this most recent national poll, conducted from Friday night June 18th to Sunday night June 20th, 2004, the Liberal Party has risen slightly to take the lead with 34% of decided voter support (up 5 points). Conversely, the Conservative Party has dropped 4 points and now hold 28% of the national decided vote. This change in the national vote race can be largely credited to the changing federal landscape in the pivotal province of Ontario, where the Liberals (42%, up 8 points) have surged back into the lead over the Conservatives (30%, down 8 points) by a substantial 12 point margin.
Nationally, the New Democratic Party (16%, unchanged) and the Green Party (6%, down 1 point) continue to hold steady in this poll.
Quebec continues to be dominated by the Bloc Quebecois (53%, up 5 points), who now hold a towering 30 point lead over the Liberal Party (23%, up 1 point). The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).
In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 53% of decided votes (up 5 points), and lead the Liberals (23%, down 1 point) by 30 points. The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).
Among all Canadians, 16% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held tomorrow (up 5 points).
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (36%, up 2 points) are essentially tied with the Liberals (32%, unchanged), while the NDP continues to slide (18%, down 3 points). The Green Party has 8% of the decided votes in this province (up 1 point).
In Alberta, the Conservatives (45%, down 14 points) lead over the Liberals (25%, up 8 points) has now shrunk to 20 points. NDP decided vote support has risen 6 points to 17%. The Green Party trails further behind with 11% of decided vote support (up 4 points).
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives (37%, up 1 point) and the Liberals (33%, up 5 points) are tightly knotted, while the NDP (17%, down 12 points) have fallen sharply. The Green Party attracts 7% of the decided vote (up 3 points).
In Atlantic Canada the Conservatives (41%, up 19 points) and the Liberals (37%, down 6 points) are essentially tied. The NDP (15%, down 6 points) trails distantly, while the Green Party barely registers (2%, down 8 points)."
They lie about Western Canada. There is NO WAY the Liberals are going to pick up any real number of seats there. Trust me, it'll be a Conservative sweep in that region.