[mkj6080]

If you take the probabilites multiple by the electoral votes one gets:

Expected Bush Electoral Votes: 284
Expected Kerry Elec Votes: 254

This is analgous to saying if I flip a coin and win $10000 if heads or $0 if tails then the expected value of the gamble is:

50%*$10000 + 50%*$0 = $5000

[supercat]

This is analgous to saying if I flip a coin and win $10000 if heads or $0 if tails then the expected value of the gamble is: 50%*$10000 + 50%*$0 = $5000

Yes, but what matters is not the "expected" number of electoral votes, but rather the probability of winning a majority of the electoral votes.

Consider the following scenario:

• Candidate A has a 90% probability of winning 51% of the electoral votes, and a 10% probability of winning zero.
• Candidate B has a 10% probability of winnig 100% of the electoral votes and a 90% probability of winning 49%.

The "expected" number of votes for candidate A is only 45.9%; candidate B "expects" to receive 54.1. That would tend to suggest that candidate B would have the advantage. The actual probability of candidate A winning, however, is 90%--an overwhelming advantage.