The Big Pciture
The big picture is that the Chinese government manages to finish what it started early last century. The destruction of the Nationalist government.
Early last century there was a huge fracas (an understatement) between the Chinese Communist movement under Mao Tse-Tung and the Nationalist movement under Chiang Kai-Shek. The Nationalists were winning, and winning big, and around 1934 the communists had to flee to the desolate mountains of Western China (in what came to be known as the Long March. An aside: China's rockets for its space programs are called the Long March, but that is another story). The communists were almost decimated .....Mao had less than 10,000 troops left!
However in 1937 China was invaded by Japan. Chiang thought the Communists were no longer a threat, and hence decided to stop chasing Mao and concentrated on the Japanese. Mao festered, not forgeting the old Chinese maxim that called for crushing your enemy completely (Chiang must have missed out on some Sun Tzu lessons LOL).
Anyways, 10 yrs later the Communists had recovered enough to launch an attack on Chiang and his Nationalist party. And Mao did not relent until all vestiges of the Nationalist party had either being destroyed, or forced to flee for their lives to the island of Taiwan.
And hence the big picture arises: Taiwan is unfinished business for the mainland. And consequently, they are really not after Taiwan per se .....what they are after is its destruction. They could literally nuke the entire island tomorrow and not give a darn, because they are not after realestate or any such thing. All they want is to follow Sun Tzu's stratagems of war ....crush and obliterate your enemy completely. End of story.
The Strategic Picture:
Taking Taiwan (or taking out Taiwan ...for the Chinese it is the same thing) would mean China would have 100% access to the seas adjacent ...particularly the primary trade routes to Japan. A potent China controlling the sea lanes to Japan could do to our dear friend Nippon what Hitler could only dream of doing to the Brits. A potent China ....and looking at China's frenetic pace at military acquisitions ....particularly naval and naval-oriented ....raises quite a few eyebrows because what they are doing is not for defence purposes. And China wants to dominate the whole Asiatic/Oceanic region ....from the sea of Japan to the Australian shores. Anyways that is their plan.
Oh, one more thing. On Japan. The Chinese remember what the Japanese did to them during the Second World War. And I am certain the Chinese want 'reparations' .....but in blood and kind. Consequently, do not be surprised to see Japan building up its military like crazy (it is already no.4 in temrs of expenditure after the US, Russia and China). And a nuclear Japan in the future is almost a certainty. Why? Because if Taiwan ever falls the next nation China would have its eye on would be Japan (it might take 10yrs after Taiwan ...it may take 100yrs ...but Japan knows China will come a-knocking).
Anyways, the Chinese would never do anything against Japan as long as they need us. They know we would rush to Japan's aid (and anyways for the next couple of decades the Japanese navy ....ooops, selpf-defense forces ....can whoop the Chinese from here to the dark side of Shamballa! The Chinese cannot put their mits on Japan without commiting the Chinese version of Seppuku!). However Taiwan is a different matter. When China takes Taiwan, and it will be within the next couple of years, Taipei will find itself getting little or no assistance. They may get satellite reco from us and such stuff, but no 'real' assistance. And not because we do not want Taiwan to remain independent but because our politicians would not be able to sell the need to defend Taiwan (with American lives) to the public.
Sadly!
"Taiwan is unfinished business for the mainland."
Deserves to be repeated.
Interesting scenario on Japan, which brings this question: How would China react if Japan announced it was going full out to re-arm.
What scares China more - a large Japanese navy, a giant expenditure on fighter aircraft or re-invigorating a few dozen divisions of samurai grunts?
Does Japan have a defense treaty with Taiwan?
How might Japan react to an invasion of Taiwan by China? Simple hand wringing or might the Japanese invade the Sprattley Islands and throw the ChiComs out??
I know I'm asking you to play crystal ball wizard, but it's always interesting to speculate.
Japan already has over 200 nuclear weapons ready for final assembly, according Jane's I think.
A very fundamental fact about Nuclear exchanges
Let's speculate on the result of a theoretical nuclear-exchange between;
Small island states(Japan, Taiwan, Cuba, G.Britain etc) against the likes of large continental land-mass nations(USA, Russia, China etc)
In such a scenario, small island nation-states would suffer much, much, more devastating damages than their large land-mass nation-states counterparts
In 1957-59, during the SUEZ CRISIS, when the USSR treathened to use nukes against Britain, unless they (Brtits) withdraw from their invasion of the Suez Canal, the British knew thair their time as a great superpower had ended. They realized that in a nuke-exchage with the USSR, Britain would be 80% devastated whereas the USSR might suffer only 20% damage--- a very one-sided exchange. Hence, the British HAD to capitulate and withdraw
If China/Japan were to have a nuke-exchange, who would suffer more damage, proportionately??????