Posted on 06/21/2004 12:55:23 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The U.S. government has cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security for the second time in less than a month.
Both the Pentagon and the Commission on U.S-China Economic and Security Review cited Beijing as a major threat to U.S. national security. The two reports noted the growing military capability of China combined with its predatory economic policy is aimed directly at the United States.
The latest report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was approved by a "unanimous vote of all eleven Commissioners." According to the Commission China's co-operation on international security matters is "un-satisfactory."
The Commission examined in depth the extent of ongoing co-operation between China and the United States on traditional national security matters, most particularly China's assistance in re-solving the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis. The Commission believes that China's performance in this area to date has been unsatisfactory, and we are concerned that U.S. pressure on trade disputes and other unrelated aspects of the relationship may have been toned down by the administration as a concession for China's hoped-for cooperation on this and other vital security matters."
Economic War
According to the report, China is deliberately using economic warfare against America to seek a "competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers."
"Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. The Chinese government persistently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep its exchange rate pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and through these actions appears to be manipulating its currency valuation," states the report.
The Commission also noted that China is violating its pledges to the World Trade Organization and that U.S. investors may actually be investing in the PLA military expansion.
"China has deliberately frustrated the effectiveness and debased the value of the WTO's TRM (Transitional Review Mechanism) which was intended to be a robust mechanism for assessing China's WTO compliance and for placing multilateral pressure on China to address compliance shortfalls."
"Without adequate information about Chinese firms trading in international capital markets, U.S. investors may be unwittingly pouring money into black box firms lacking basic corporate governance structures, as well as enterprises involved in activities harmful to U.S. security interests," noted the report.
Weapons for Oil
The Commission report also noted that China continues to proliferate advanced weapons to many of its client states including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. In addition, China now appears to be willing to trade weapons for oil.
"China's growing energy needs, linked to its rapidly expanding economy, are creating economic and security concerns for the United States. China's energy security policies are driving it into bilateral arrangements that undermine multilateral efforts to stabilize oil supplies and prices, and in some cases may involve dangerous weapons transfers," stated the report.
"China has sought energy cooperation with countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and Sudan, which are inaccessible by U.S. and other western firms. Some analysts have voiced suspicions that China may have offered WMD-related transfers as a component of some of its energy deals," noted the Commission.
New Weapons
The Commission report also revealed that Russia has sold China a more advanced version of the deadly SUNBURN (3M83 Moskit) cruise missile. Nikolay Shcherbakov, adviser to the director general of the Altair Naval Scientific Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, is reported as saying that "we are supplying China with new-generation equipment. We have been allowed to supply MOSKIT supersonic antiship cruise missiles with twice the range - 240km instead of the existing 120."
The Commission also noted a growing concern that China would use nuclear weapons to attack and defeat U.S. forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
"Recognizing the possible involvement of the U.S. military, the current scholarship on China's R & D finds that PRC strategists believe that a superior navy could be defeated through the disabling of its space-based systems, as for example, by exo-atmospheric detonation of a nuclear warhead to generate an electromagnetic pulse," stated the report.
In addition, the Commission noted that China is pursuing an advanced laser weapon for use against Taiwanese and U.S. forces.
"It has recently been reported that China has successfully developed a laser cannon with a range of more than one hundred kilometers and might have already deployed it in Fujian Province facing Taiwan."
Shooting War in 2005
The Commission's report painted a deadly and growing picture of the Chinese threat with a possible conflict only a year away.
"The China Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it said that Beijing had developed a 'sudden strike' strategy to attack Taiwan. This story discussed a scenario in which an attack would consist of an initial seven-minute shock and strike missile barrage that would paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by seventeen minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within twenty-four hours of the strike, 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan. China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report," stated the Commission report.
In early June the Pentagon released a Congressionally mandated report on Chinese military developments. The Pentagon report outlined the double-digit increases in Chinese defense spending and major weapons purchases from Russia.
China currently is third in total defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia, with nearly $100 billion a year now budgeted for the PLA. The Pentagon report noted that the PLA double-digit increases are expected to continue through 2010.
According to the report, the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles has changed the balance of power in the Pacific, threatening to start a war over Taiwan. China currently has an estimated 550 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan.
"China most likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air-defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), land-attack cruise missiles, special operation forces and other assets," stated the Pentagon report. The Pentagon report noted that China is increasing its long-range missile capability and is expected to expand its inventory to 30 such missiles by the end of 2005. The Pentagon anticipates the Chinese long-range nuclear missile force will exceed 60 before the end of the decade.
Nuclear War
The Pentagon report also warned that Chinese military strategists are considering the use of nuclear weapons against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. According to the Pentagon, a nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude would create an "electromagnetic" shock wave that will disrupt U.S. communications and scramble sophisticated military computers. "PLA theorists who have become aware of these electromagnetic effects may have considered using a nuclear weapon as an unconventional attack option," stated the Pentagon report.
Chinese authorities have reacted explosively to the recent reports, especially over the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao underscored the unstable nature of China's relationship by threatening to use military force to seize control of the tiny island nation.
According to the official PRC news Xinhua, China will never tolerate "Taiwan independence", neither will China allow anybody to split Taiwan from the motherland with any means.
"The Taiwan independence activities are the greatest threats to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," stated Liu. The official PRC spokesman also asked the United States to stop selling advanced weapons to Taiwan under any pretenses and refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan.
If there's a ChiCom attempt to invade Taiwan?
Yes, absolutely. We're going to be involved from the get-go in such a war.
The alternative is that the Taiwanese had better win unassisted. That's because if the Taiwanese lose, they will use their nuclear arsenal on China as a last statement of Dew neh loh moh to the world.
Missile shield will be up and running
It's probably easier for us to build NMD against China, and maintain pace with the ChiCom nuclear force structure, than it ever was against the Russians.
We would be able to start bringing the manufacturing back home again; bring all the tech stuff to Silicon valley etc.
Alberta's Child: I tend to agree with her. Did she also suggest that the U.S. had no business chasing the Japanese out of Manchuria in the 1930s?
I'm afraid I didn't ask her that. But it really impressed me, how nationalistic to China she was even though she was Canadian. (She was a graduate student in molecular biology I met while visiting the University of Minnesota.) If her attitude is typical, we've got a real problem considering our treaty obligations to Taiwan.
They aren't ready yet, but they are a massive country. We are like a little bug.
Just thank goodness we have Dubya, who will actually continue to advance our weapons so China's will continue to be inferior.
Another 8 years of a Clinton type would have kept our weapons pretty stagnant as the Chinese advanced rapidly.
That's a fact, and there are fewer young Americans getting graduate degrees in science, per the National Science Foundation. We aren't filling the pipeline for the future.
There is a further problem. China can either liquidate our debt on the open market, or merely quit purchasing our bonds and T-Bills. The net result will be a disruption of the markets and an increase in interest rates. Without firing a shot, they can hurt our economy.
I think we will pay a heavy price for those cheap goods.
Um-hmm. And if that's true, what happens to the billions of dollars of U.S. investment in China? What happens to our economy when we can't manufacture the things our military require?
Can you say consequences?
Or even, "Mr. Lenin, please buy this rope. I've arranged a nothing down, E-Z payment plan for you!"
After the COSCO ships return to port with the food that was originally destined for us, China won't have all that much trouble feeding their own.
Bingo. China has been putting American farmers out of business for the past several years, and it hasn't been only so they could "make money selling us food."
When they turn the COSCO ships around, that food will go to domestic consumption, and we, meanwhile, will be looking at starting from scratch, with no lead time.
Advantage China.
What will happen is that China will sit back and say, "Isn't it great when a PLAN comes together?"
I suspect they'll do a much better job of coping with food shortages than we will. Can you imagine the wailing that will occur if WalMart runs short on the free-traitors' favorite TV snack?
Some years ago, we had a minor snow storm here. It couldn't have been more than five or six inches of snow, and it was all gone in 48 hours - but by the end of the first evening, the grocery store shelves were bare. This in a city of more than a million!
I think we are very vulnerable to any supply disruption, and I question our fortitude in dealing with such situations.
Speaking of plans - I cannot help wondering if Iran is serving as China's pawn presently. Why do they seem to be spoiling for a fight? Why did they seize the British patrol boats? It could be Mullah madness, of course...but I cannot help wondering if Beijing isn't encouraging it.
And the reason is simple: Supply and demand. There isn't any pipeline for the future, so why prepare to fill it?
There is a further problem. China can either liquidate our debt on the open market, or merely quit purchasing our bonds and T-Bills. The net result will be a disruption of the markets and an increase in interest rates. Without firing a shot, they can hurt our economy.
We're balanced on such a razor's edge in so many areas that it would take but a puff for them to blow us over. And they know it. And they plan it. And they make no secret of it. It's only our self-imposed delusions that motivate us to ignore it, to our own peril.
I think we will pay a heavy price for those cheap goods.
Heavier than this world has ever seen. It wouldn't take much to make "The Postman" seem like a walk in the park.
I suspect they'll do a much better job of coping with food shortages than we will. Can you imagine the wailing that will occur if WalMart runs short on the free-traitors' favorite TV snack?Some years ago, we had a minor snow storm here. It couldn't have been more than five or six inches of snow, and it was all gone in 48 hours - but by the end of the first evening, the grocery store shelves were bare. This in a city of more than a million!
I think we are very vulnerable to any supply disruption, and I question our fortitude in dealing with such situations.
Sadly, you're right on the money for the most part. The average Chinese will cope fairly well with a diet of rice and beans, because it won't really be much of a transition at all. The average American, on the other hand, is really screwed when it comes to the "living with adversity" department.
Rice, wheat, and beans are really cheap. And they store well, without much difficulty. I'll be able to survive for a year or so, living like a Chinaman, until I can (hopefully) get some crops in, to see us through to the next year. I'd be way ahead of the game if not for resistance from my wife. :(
Possibly. Possibly without realizing it, too.
Why do they seem to be spoiling for a fight?
It's their nature. Islamists, like communists, are obsessed with the idea of ruling the world.
Why did they seize the British patrol boats?
For that matter, why has there been pretty much of a news blackout on it? An act of war by Iran against the UK should be THE news of the day, but it ain't. I can't shake the idea that TPTB have put out the word to the compliant "free" press to keep a lid on it.
We've gone from Roosevelt's Big Stick aimed at Raisuli to the modern "don't rock the boat" neochamberlainism.
that missile shield will probably contain a ship mounted contingent. Mobil and hooked into the main satalite system. If the barrage of missiles happens and we can take out a large number of them, we can seriously screw up the plans to land a force of 245,000. At least it will buy time. They will not be able to mobilize that many troups without use seeing it. ( hopefully)
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