Going down your bullet list, allow me to comment:
Cheney or Giuliani - CIA
Cheney. Giuliani will not conduct the blood purge that is needed. Too many goobers at the Agency were leaking for the Dems. The whole Joe Wilson scam came right out of the CIA. Giuliani needs to go to the Senate where he can shine.
Giuliani - Attorney General (If Ashcroft wants to leave. If not, let him stay as he has endured a heck of alot of bashing and I would not want to give the bashers a reward).
Agreed here, but I think that Giuliani wants to try his hand at unseating the Hildebeast in 2006. AG could be the ticket to doing that. The problem? He can't be in any position in which he can be held accountable for a successful terrorist attack, or he's dead meat.
Rice or McCain - VP
If Bush is down to this choice, he goes with Rice. He doesn't truly trust McCain. Bush must have had to give McCain some serious pork, perhaps even a promise that he could have Rummy's job in the Second Term, to get this endorsement. Besides, I'm convinced that Bush and Rove are thinking Big Demographic and want to go with Rice to tear away some black and female support from the Rats. A black woman does that for you, especially that black woman.
Oh yes, and one last thing. McCain is still being treated for melanoma.
McCain or Rice - Secretary of State (Powell probably does not want to serve another term but would stay if Bush asks. Bush won't.) Cheney - Secretary of Defense (Rummy may not want another term. If he does, by all means let him stay on. He is an awesome Secretary of Defense.)
Don't be surprised if Bush asks Powell to hang on. Rummy may go, as this whole Abu Ghraib thing blindsided Bush. Cheney's done SecDef. That's why this may be McCain's spot. McC also wants Rummy to go. Bush may have decided that Rummy is the easiest one to toss over the side next year.
Be Seeing You,
Chris