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To: Boot Hill
If you have an internal problem the recipe is to stir up external problems in order to divert the attention. It is safe to blame India for the terrorist problem as many buys the description and thus you play down that the ideology behind AQ, i.e. the type of Sunni Islam preached in this region is the reason.

This means that the hunt for AQ in Baluchistan in the Evening press will be a hunt for old spies, and terrorists under the pay from the archenemy, India. This will reduce the probability for any uprising.

I anticipate that both ISI and RAW during the years have been involved in this (i.e. supporting violent guys), but that they today have closed almost all of this type of operations.

Baluchistan is different from FATA and needs to be handled differently: More intelligence and police and less military.
897 posted on 08/31/2004 4:39:45 AM PDT by AdmSmith
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To: AdmSmith

I agree with the consensus arrived at here, with the possible exception of "more cops, fewer shooters" and then, only in the outlying regions. That's a big empty place, not much in any of the three countries except mud walled villages, and the military is about the only entity that can operate under those conditions with organic support.

Already looking into a new set of maps, but it is a large area that spans two 90 meter per pixel SRTM tiles, and about 12 to 18 30 m per pixel 1 degree tiles. Probably looking at a 90m per pixel overview, with one degree tiles generated as events dictate.

Shooting for delivery date early in 2005, but will probably wait to see how the election turns out. Something tells me that both the carrot and the stick the US is plying will disappear if there's a break in leadership continuity here in the US.


898 posted on 08/31/2004 11:42:53 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: AdmSmith
Baluchistan is different from FATA and needs to be handled differently: More intelligence and police and less military.

If you're right, that the mix will be different (and I suspect you are), then that presents a couple of interesting problems of operational control for Mushi to work out.

First, who controls the police? Are they controlled at the national level (Mushi) or by local officials? And second, if Mushi intends to rely upon his intelligence services (ISI) to spearhead this operation, there are still some serious questions lingering about just where their true loyalties lie.

Maybe Mushi has very quietly cleaned house there, after some of the more egregious examples of ISI's "split loyalties" were made public a couple of years back by U.S. intelligence. But if Mushi hasn't cleaned that house, I think you can count the ISI as a back-bencher in any Baluchistan operation.

--Boot Hill

899 posted on 08/31/2004 11:47:28 AM PDT by Boot Hill (Candy-gram for Osama bin Mongo, candy-gram for Osama bin Mongo!!!)
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