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This implies that you think that there is a central command for AQ. I think that was true a few years ago, but today it seems that "the base" is more or less scattered and the young "students" from the Taliban time has started their own enterprises, but with the same business idea as ObL.

They are today very concerned about the risk for infiltration and are reluctant to add new recruits. A new guy has to, like in the mob, prove his loyalty. This is very risky for them and the main reason that they are recruiting family and clan members(like the mob)

I we can knock down all training camps and deprive them of the support from clan members in the Pashtu area, it is only a matter of time until AQ is finished in Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, small groups (compare the N19 in Greece) will continue to be a source of problem until they will fade out.

Money and other resources to the border area will in time replace the glorious memory of the Taliban. The tribes will not say no to health care (Malaria is a problem in this area), running hot and cold water and the "bread and entertainment" that a modern world can offer. Furthermore they are illiterate and many of them knows less about Islam than the lurkers of this thread. Send in teachers with moderate views of Sunni Islam and we will see results in 10-15 years time.

The idolization of ObL in the cities is just fashion like the fashion during the 70s for Che Guevara etc. It will fade in a couple of years.

Back to your post: Is it really the case that Ahmed had made roughly 250 entries to the United States? If it is correct it indicates that they are lacking loyal couriers and are risking to be compromised. The conclusion is that it is a very small group.

Another brief by Syed:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FH05Df02.html
South Asia

Musharraf steps back from the US
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - "Pakistan is not sending its troops to Iraq." So reads the most recent handout from the Pakistani Foreign Office and the
clearest signal yet that President General Pervez Musharraf is finally attempting to distance himself from the United States' sphere of influence, even if only for domestic expediency.

Just days ago Islamabad refused to make such a categorical statement, as demanded by hostage-takers in Iraq holding two Pakistani contract workers. The two men were subsequently beheaded.

Interim Prime Minister Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain even paid a visit to Saudi Arabia, where he announced that the countries were developing a consensus on sending Pakistani troops to Iraq. Earlier, Saudi Arabia had proposed the formation of an all-Muslim force to be sent to Iraq to help with security. Pakistan was to be a key part of this.

And the Pakistani parliament was unable to come up with a resolution calling for troops not to be dispatched to Iraq. Similarly, when US Central Command commander General John Abizaid visited Islamabad last week, apart from pressing Musharraf to deliver "high-value" foreign suspects, he reiterated the US desire that Pakistan send troops to Iraq. Pakistan said it would do this "when the time is right".

For long caught between extremist Islamists on the one hand and US pressures on the other, Musharraf appears now to be distancing himself from Washington, as least as far as troops are concerned. He is still handing over al-Qaeda suspects on a regular basis.

Asia Times Online has been told by security contacts that well before Abizaid's visit, Hussain met with leaders of the influential grouping of six religious-political parties, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, and asked them to raise a voice against sending the army into Iraq and to hold protest rallies all over the country to "show to US the extreme feeling of dissent" in the country.

An observer from Karachi who was close to Musharraf when he was a major-general and posted as director general of military operations at General Headquarters, Rawalpindi, commented, "Musharraf is susceptible to pressures. He does not have the ability to respond to pressures immediately, and always takes some time before he fights back against the pressures, and only when he is sure that he has the proper support."

Mounting pressures

Islamic militants continue their insurgency in the South and North Waziristan tribal areas, where, under pressure from Washington, the army has been sent to track down foreign militants. The troops are reportedly under daily rocket and missile attacks, as well as assaults from remote-controlled bombs.

Renewed insurgency in southwestern Balochistan province, where anti-Pakistan Baloch tribals, who had been courted by the US to counteract the Taliban, have now regrouped and are inflicting serious casualties on Pakistani troops.

The designation of pro-US banker and present Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz as the next premier, subject to him winning a by-election for the Lower House, has alarmed many as he has no political constituency. This has upset traditional feudal families who have relations in the army and who fear they will lose their political clout.

These developments have caused recent tit-for-tat reactions:

Major-General Ayaz Khattak, in charge of operations in South Waziristan, escaped death in a suicide attack on his office. After the incident, when authorities were inspecting the site, another bomb was detonated by remote control, killing an Intelligence Bureau officer.

Premier-designate Aziz survived a suicide attack in which 11 others were killed.

Feedback from the latest langer gathering. (Langer means feast. The army has traditionally staged feasts for officers, soldiers and their families. They hold frank discussions, and military intelligence then compiles a special report on the chit-chat, which is presented to all corps commanders and the chief of army staff. The mood was completely against sending troops to Iraq.)

In addition, Pakistan's elite intelligence agencies, including Military Intelligence and Inter-Services Intelligence, have repeatedly warned Musharraf about adverse developments in the army, that is, against the leadership. Musharraf has even repeated this in public, notably in connection with an assassination attempt on his life in which army personnel have been implicated.

Intelligence also points to stepped-up attacks by al-Qaeda and its sympathizers, including against prominent federal cabinet members.

Deadlines loom
Two of the most important dates since Musharraf assumed power in a bloodless coup in October 1999 are close. By October 7 he must replace two full generals who are due to retire, and by the end of the year he must choose between either the presidency or chief of army staff, the two positions he now holds.

With these two events in mind, Musharraf has opted to give himself breathing space and take some of the heat out of the political climate by ending debate on sending troops to Iraq, and waiting until he has his new generals in place as they are widely expected to be promoted on the basis of loyalty to Musharraf rather than on seniority. This will cause disaffected - passed-over - officers to resign, further strengthening the general's grip.