For the most part I agree.
There is always the mathematical possibility that the tribes, valuing their previous autonomous freedoms, will recognize that certain minimum performance is the price of that freedom and embrace change.
They have not been quick to do this, and I suspect they will lose those freedoms forever.
Fully purging the lawless regions on both side of the border may take as long as several generations.
I can't think of a better way to start than establishing large military bases at Wana, Miram Shah, Parachinar, Khost, and Orgun. The swamp that has been the porous border region will be drained, and the alligators encouraged find other accomodations.
But first, there's a particularly big nest that requires special attention.