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That sounds optimistic. It's possible, because they've been making announcements for weeks that they have the area surrounded and he's not there. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

I think the news last week about Pakistan saying UBL wasn't in the border region was nothing more than trying to "shake the tree" and see if anything falls out -

I also think that UBL (and Al Zawahiri) are most likely right there in Pakistan - And most likely somewhere along the border region - As we all know that terrain in that region is brutal and makes military operations there extremely more difficult -

I would also say that the notion that UBL has traveled to Iran or S.A just doesn't fit his M.O. (why would he put himself at the possibly mercy of a centralized Gov't) -

I think UBL has just simply been ekking out a survival in the border region of Pakistan - We (U.S.) have not sent forces into that region and thus UBL has had no reason to move -

And while we have possible (and probably assuredly) sent small teams of America SOF units into the border region of Pakistan (for Recon and snatch and grab missions) we have never sent any where near the number of forces that would be needed to capture or kill UBL -

Until we say screw all the political / Socio/ tribal / mumbojumbo and just declare come hell or high water.....we are coming in (to the Pak border region) to find any HVT that remain in this area......Until we do this....UBL will remain at large -

http://www.editorsweblog.org/2004/12/pakistan_newspa.html

Pakistan: newspaper barred from printing Bin Laden sermons

Ehsan Sehar of Nawa-I-Ahmedpur Sharqia reports that "Pakistani authorities have told a newspaper to stop publishing photos and sermons of Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden and elusive Taliban chief Mulla Omar, an official said on Wednesday. Urdu-language daily Ummat has been printing the wanted pair's images and speeches since late 2001, when a US-led military campaign ousted Afghanistan's hardline Islamic Taliban militia from power. "We have issued a notice, asking them to explain from where they were getting these statements by Osama Bin Laden and Mulla Omar every day," Sindh government spokesman Salahuddin Haider said."

"Haider said the two had been declared international terrorists so the government had a right to know from where the newspaper was getting the material. "There are also strong suspicions that the newspaper might be getting funds from these groups linked to Taliban and Al Qaeda," Haider said. The newspaper said it had already ceased publishing material on Bin Laden and Omar, but denied receiving funds from any group. "We have received the notice on Tuesday, but had stopped publishing the sayings and photographs three days back," a senior official of the newspaper said, requesting anonymity."