Another Washington Times thumb-sucker. I'm surprised Don Lambro didn't write it. Or maybe he has already.
In some respects, the Times is a commendable paper. But they do have a bad habit of seeing Republican growth among Democratic constituencies (blacks, Jews, etc.) with little factual backup.
New Jersey is what it is, a sorry combination of union-brainwashed blue collars and upper-income suburban liberals. Remember when Bret Schundler was supposed to be a strong candidate for governor? The recent political history of the Garden State has simply been a nightmare. Bush will not win this state. He's better off focusing like a laser on Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri and Florida. These are the big four. New Jersey is a sinkhole.
I agree with you, but New Jersey would cinch the election for Bush.
You'd be surprised.
I live in Jersey. I'm heavily conservative. So are most of the people I know.
You seem to me to be totally discounting the impact of 9/11 here, and assuming that NJ will continue voting the same way it always has.
You also fail to appreciate just how much Democrat corruption attributed to Governor McGreasy has alienated Jerseyians. You're about to see what drove Jerseyans to Democrats over the last decade (Governor Whitless) now played out in reverse.
When you include the 9/11 factor, think especially about this - historically, -South- Jersey has always been conservative, and -North- Jersey has always been liberal. But it was North Jersey that was hit hardest by 9/11. Bush's base in the southern half of the state was already secure. The effect of 9/11 went straight to the -core- of the concentration of liberals in NJ.
Most of the self-identified liberals I know in this state are actually utterly apathetic about politics and won't go anywhere near the voting booth come the election.
Don't count us out. We may just have a big surprise for you. At the very minimum, Kerry won't win by the margin you think he will.
I'm not saying Bush should necessarily -concentrate- here... but spending a -little- time wouldn't hurt at all. Also, if Bush could just -once- actually -solidly and undisputedly lead- Kerry in the polls in NJ, think of the effect that would have across the nation. Given most people's preconceptions (including yours), it would be shocking. The media would HAVE to acknowledge that Kerry was in serious trouble.
By the way, check the records. How many out of the last 9 presidential elections in NJ went to the Democrat? It's not as many as you think. You'll be quite surprised.
Qwinn
But it's also because of our screwed up political landscape. I can't help but say, though, that I don't see either Bret Schundler's primary victory or Doug Forrester's race against the Democratic Machine as disasters. We lost, but I see those two elections as signs of movement in the right direction.
We have some tough odds to deal with here in NJ, but I wouldn't say it's totally hopeless. If GWB can win a second term, maybe with a clear mandate, then maybe he can help us send a Republican to the Senate. And judging by recent elections, the voting GOP in NJ will deliver a conservative.
NJ, May not go for Bush. That is hardly the point. This article, is an OPEN ADMISSION by Kerry that NJ has to be defensed, making it a Luxury for Bush, but a Battleground for Kerry.
If Kerry is forced to push for NJ that is MUCH LESS resources for OHIO,PA, and FLA. And NJ is THE MOST EXPENSIVE MEDIA MARKET TO DEFEND, because you have to use both Philly, and NYC media to defend it.
This article is important, bc it shows the battleground moving from Battleground states to states Gore won in 2000.
And Bush has barely begun making his case.
Bad juju for Candidate Kerry...