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To: maui_hawaii
From your previous posts, I know you're a China hawk, and so am I. Economically (among other things), we've gotten ourselves into a pickle with China. Simply put, China is helping to finance our deficits, buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of treasury bills every year. If we do not accommodate their mercantilist policies, THEY will not, and cannot, buy as many T-bills. If that were to happen, interest rates would go up as we would have to go out and find other buyers to fill their $100B/yr. appetite for Treasury bonds. Of course, this is nothing new; they are simply following the lead of Japan, the largest owner of US debt. Japan has been financing US deficits for years. Why do you think there was no trade war during Papa Bush's administration? Japan couldn't have bought as many T-bills, and the recovery would have been dampened with higher interest rates.

There's also the "Economic Weapon" theory, flouted by biggest of China hawks, most notably Aaron L. Friedberg from Commentary Magazine. Under this scenario, China is building up treasury bills as LEVERAGE. Say 10 years from now China owns $500B in US debt. A month before the PRC decides to reclaim Taiwan by force, they sell ALL of their T-bills. Panic ensues among other bondholders, and a stampede out of US securities occurs. Interest rates skyrocket, and the US is too concerned with domestic issues to intervene. Or, they could slowly bleed off holdings over a couple of years, causing interest rates to slowly rise and giving themselves a bit of deniability. However, even Mr. Friedberg doesn't think it will happen, as he compares the damage of economic weapons to nuclear weapons, and it could let a genie out of a bottle.

So, what do we do? Drastically cut spending to reduce our deficits while eliminating corporate taxes to revitalize our industrial manufacturing base.
29 posted on 06/15/2004 11:02:47 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: Remember_Salamis
Interesting post...but thats not what I was asking.

Not that I agree with the post that you put up...IMO there are many things that I find bogus for a variety of reasons.

China might be threatening, and causing problems, but owning notes isn't one of them. In that area China's effect is minimal.

31 posted on 06/15/2004 11:10:26 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: Remember_Salamis

What law made it ok for foreign countries to by US T-bills? I am really curious, because it used to be they weren't for sale to foreign countries for the precise reason you mentioned in your post.


33 posted on 06/15/2004 11:16:17 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: Remember_Salamis
Of course, this is nothing new; they are simply following the lead of Japan, the largest owner of US debt.

Correction: largest foreign holder of U.S. Federal debt.

55 posted on 06/16/2004 7:15:28 AM PDT by Gunslingr3
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