[Plutarch]

I note that at Trade Sports that overall for the election, Bush is at 60%.

Do you think that looking at individual state's for Electoral Votes is a more sensitive or accurate predictor than the overall market?

[So Cal Rocket]

I note that at Trade Sports that overall for the election, Bush is at 60%.

Do you think that looking at individual state's for Electoral Votes is a more sensitive or accurate predictor than the overall market?

The Overall Odds for the Election (60%) correlates almost exactly with the odds for the individual states:

In order for Kerry to win, he needs 15 more EVs... looking at the individual odds for the states, we find the shortest odds where Bush is winning at 52% for NH (4 EVs), 54.3% for NM (5 EVs), then Florida at 59.9% (27 EVs)

[Momaw Nadon]

Do you think that looking at individual state's for Electoral Votes is a more sensitive or accurate predictor than the overall market?

That's a good question, Plutarch.

While the projection for the individual state's for Electoral Votes reaches a similar conclusion to the overall market, I believe the projection for the individual state's for Electoral Votes is more detailed, and therefore more accurate.